Click here for the #1-2 Preview and here for the #8-11 Preview.
Continuing our 2021 AAC Football Preview, we now investigate a group of teams of about the same strength whose fortunes could turn either way. Unlike Cincinnati, none of the teams we will discuss are expected to win the AAC championship, but nor are they in the sorrier state of the Temple, USF, Navy, or East Carolina types. That being said the fans of these schools expect them to play bowl games and under favorable circumstances any of them could challenge the leaders.
So with that, let’s get started:
#7 Tulane
Not too long ago that the Green Wave were considered one of college football’s perennial bottom-dwellers, going through fired coach after fired coach, and multiple 2-3 win seasons. Since the hiring of former Georgia Southern Head Coach Willie Fritz, however, Tulane has markedly improved. Starting off with 4-8 in 2016 and 5-7 in 2017, Fritz has now led the Green Wave to 3 consecutive bowl seasons for the first time in school history.
In 2020, Tulane struggled initially with a 2-4 start after wins over South Alabama and Southern Miss, double-digit road losses to Houston and UCF, and home heartbreakers to Navy and SMU (the former after a blown 24-0 lead). Nevertheless, the team hit its stride in the final stretch of the regular season, beating Temple, East Carolina, Army, and Memphis, and only lost to AAC Runner-Up Tulsa in overtime.
So, yes, Tulane is no longer a doormat. However, the Green Wave must still take that next step up the AAC hierarchy to become a conference contender.
Tulane returns QB Michael Pratt after a strong freshman campaign. He passed for 1,806 yards and 20 touchdowns in 10 games, including 9 starts. Pratt will look to have a strong sophomore season added to that. The running back corps must replace Amare Jones, who has transferred to Georgia Southern. The favorite to replace him is R-SO Cameron Carroll, who finished 2020 with 741 total rushing yards + 12 touchdowns. In addition, Tulane recruited Utah transfer Devin Brumfield. RS-FR Tyjae Spears is the wildcard. Spears finished 2020 with 274 yards, 7.4 per carry, in only 3 games before suffering a season-ending injury at Southern Miss.
At wide receiver, the Green Wave return SO Jha’Quan Jackson (425 yards and 8 touchdowns in 31 receptions) and JR Deuce Watts (512 yards and 6 touchdowns in 31 receptions), in addition to JR Phat Watts (217 yards in 17 receptions). The TE position returns JR Tyrick James (202 yards and 3 touchdowns in 18 receptions), who can be expected to play a big role in the offensive scheme for 2021 with new Offensive Coordinator Chip Long (replacing Will Hall). The O-Line also returns 7 players who had at least 2 starts in 2020, including SR LG Corey Dublin and potentially All-AAC SO Center Sincere Haynesworth.
The defensive coordinator has also been replaced, with longtime DC Jack Curtis fired after his defense failed to live up to expectations. His replacement is former Tulane DB coach (2016-19) Chris Hampton. The defensive line must also be retooled, replacing two starters from last year (Patrick Johnson and Cameron Sample.) To remedy the problem, Tulane added Memphis transfer Joseph Dorceus, and both Freshman Angelo Anderson, and RS-Freshman Darius Hodges should play.
The linebacker core, on the other hand, is loaded with SO Dorian Williams (98 tackles, 16.5 for a loss), JR Nick Anderson (88 tackles, 10.5 for a loss), SR Marvin Moody (72 tackles) and Grad-TR Kevin Henry (48 tackles) all returning. The secondary also returns SR Jaylon Monroe at CB (broke up 9 passes), JR Larry Brooks at Strong Safety (58 tackles and a team-high 3 picks), and JR Macon Clark at Free Safety. Adding transfers such as Derrion Rakestraw at Safety (Colorado) and Lance Robinson at CB (Kansas State) should help as well.
It’s clear Tulane’s biggest question is probably the defensive line, so the bad news for Tulane is a schedule filled with excellent offenses, not just in-conference, but out of conference:
| Saturday, September 4, 2021 | Tulane vs Oklahoma | Yulman Stadium, New Orleans, LA |
| Saturday, September 11, 2021 | Tulane vs Morgan State | Yulman Stadium, New Orleans, LA |
| Saturday, September 18, 2021 | Tulane @ Ole Miss | Vaught Hemingway Stadium, Oxford, MS |
| Saturday, September 25, 2021 | Tulane vs UAB | Yulman Stadium, New Orleans, LA |
| Saturday, October 2, 2021 | Tulane @ East Carolina | Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium, Greenville, NC |
| Thursday, October 7, 2021 | Tulane vs Houston | Yulman Stadium, New Orleans, LA |
| Saturday, October 16, 2021 | BYE WEEK | N/a |
| Thursday, October 21, 2021 | Tulane @ SMU | Gerald J Ford Stadium, Dallas, TX |
| Saturday, October 30, 2021 | Tulane vs Cincinnati | Yulman Stadium, New Orleans, LA |
| Saturday, November 6, 2021 | Tulane @ UCF | Bounce House, Orlando, FL |
| Saturday, November 13, 2021 | Tulane vs Tulsa | Yulman Stadium, New Orleans, LA |
| Saturday, November 20, 2021 | Tulane vs USF | Yulman Stadium, New Orleans, LA |
| Saturday, November 27, 2021 | Tulane @ Memphis | Liberty Bowl Stadium, Memphis, TN |
| Sat, December 4, 2021 | AAC Championship (if eligible) | TBD |
Tulane starts off with CFP contender/Big 12 Champion Oklahoma before hosting FCS Morgan State. After that, the Green Wave must travel to Oxford to play an Ole Miss team who should be one of the best offenses in college football, followed by hosting defending CUSA Champions UAB. Tulane then plays at East Carolina before hosting Houston on a short week, Thursday night.
After a bye week, the Green Wave plays at SMU on another Thursday night matchup before hosting defending AAC Champion Cincinnati. Following that is a road trip in Orlando to face what should be another great UCF team under former Auburn coach Gus Malzahn; then a two home game stand with AAC Runner-Up Tulsa and bottom-dweller USF. Tulane’s last game of the regular season is at Memphis.
Gone from their schedule are Navy and Temple, replaced by Cincinnati and USF.
Best-Case: Tulane starts off 2-2, with guaranteed losses to Oklahoma and Ole Miss, but also an impressive win over UAB. Victories over East Carolina and Houston start the Green Wave off 2-0 in the AAC before finally taking the SMU monkey off their backs with a win in Dallas to go 3-0. Two losses to Cincinnati and UCF set things a little back for the Green Wave despite near upsets, but Tulane beats Tulsa and USF as well as a big win at Memphis to go 8-4. Hype levels for 2022 reach an all-time high.
Worst-Case: Mind you, this would be a shocker since I think Willie Fritz has turned Tulane into a strong obstacle in the AAC. The schedule is still very tough though… Tulane starts off 1-3, only beating Morgan State, while losing to UAB at home, plus Oklahoma and Ole Miss (by massive blowouts). The Green Wave manage to split between ECU and Houston to go 2-4, but a 4-game losing streak to SMU, Cincinnati, UCF, and Tulsa end Tulane’s postseason hopes for 2021. Tulane still beats USF but loses to Memphis to go 3-9, their worst record since 2015, before Fritz’s hiring. This shocking scenario would be a major setback for Tulane’s program.
ESPN’s FPI has Tulane’s win/loss percentage at 6.8-5.4. Too high or too low?
It’s about right… Tulane should be a strong team, but their schedule may not show it. I feel like Tulane will win Morgan State, UAB, East Carolina, Houston, USF, and Tulsa to go 6-6; a bit disappointing, but Tulane does make their 4th-straight bowl game. However, I do think sooner or later, Tulane has to show themselves as more than just a bowl team in the AAC; this team does have potential to pull off upsets. While I don’t think they win this game, I’d probably keep an eye on Tulane hosting Cincinnati in what could be a trap game for the Bearcats.
#6 Memphis
Just 10 years ago, Memphis was at the bottom of the college football realm, posting 2-10, 1-11, and 2-10 seasons in 2009, 2010, and 2011 respectively. That all changed when Justin Fuente was hired in 2012; Memphis went from a losing team to an AAC Co-Champion in 2014. From there, even with two coaching changes (Mike Norvell, and current HC Ryan Silverfield), Memphis kept producing winning season after winning season. In 2020, this was no different, with the Tigers posting an 8-3 record, including their first win over UCF since 1990 and their first bowl victory since 2014.
Despite that impressive record, however, that team had serious flaws, even in their victories. In the first victory vs Ark State, Memphis was actually out-passed by the Red Wolves. In the UCF game, Memphis needed to come back down 35-14 when the Knights could have run away with the game; they only took the lead with 1:08 left in the 4th, 50-49, though this is also testimony to the team’s character and fortitude. At Temple, Memphis was actually down 15-10 at the half at home. In the USF game, Memphis came back after being down 27-13 to a bad Bulls team to take the lead with 1:03 left in the 4th, 34-33. They were also only up 6 vs Stephen F Austin at halftime, 20-14. Similarly, at Navy, Memphis was tied with the Midshipmen most of the game, needing a field goal in the 4th to win. And the Tigers nearly blew a 27-6 lead vs Houston, but held on to win 30-27. Memphis’ 3 losses were heartbreaker at SMU, a blowout loss at Cincinnati, and a double-digit defeat at Tulane. So, it’s clear the 2020 Memphis team had significant weaknesses.
To be fair to the Tigers, Memphis had more than their share of Covid-19 issues, going nearly the entire month of September without playing a game. Their first game was against Arkansas State, because the games at UTSA and vs Houston were either postponed or cancelled. In addition, 2020 was Ryan Silverfield’s first year, and the Tigers (like most teams) did not have a true offseason, so their struggles were understandable.
Still, Memphis was an opposing touchdown or field goal away from a 3-7 or 4-6 season in 2020, as only 3 of their victories were decisive double-digit wins; they beat UCF (6-4) by 1, USF (1-8) by 1, Navy (3-7) by 3, and Houston (3-5) by 3. In addition, Silverfield had issues in road games, only beating Navy while losing SMU, Tulane, and Cincinnati. I’m pointing this out, because this is something that Ryan Silverfield needs to work on in order to return to the AAC Championship.
And in 2021, he’ll have to do it without longtime starting QB Brady White, who passed for 10,690 yards and 90 touchdowns in 3 seasons. That type of production will not be easy to replace… fortunately, the cupboard is not bare for Memphis, as they received yet another transfer from Arizona in SO Grant Gunnell. In addition, Memphis has RS-FR Keilon Brown and a former LSU recruit in SO Peter Parrish. The favorite to win the job here is Gunnell, who nearly beat USC as an Arizona Wildcat last year, a bright spot for what was an otherwise abysmal team.
Memphis’s running game was inconsistent last season, with only 9 rushing touchdowns. The good news is that the core, including SO Rodrigues Clark (who led the team with 561 yards), R-SO Asa Martin (233 yards), and RS-JR Kylan Watkins (averaged over 5 yards per carry), is back. The bad news is that the offensive line will need to replace two starters, including LG Obinna Eze (who transferred to TCU). Again, Memphis has talent like RS-JR Matt Dale who returns along with RS-JR Dylan Parham; however, last season’s O-Line, while decent with pass protection, did no favors for the running game, averaging 145.9 yards per game and frequently allowed tackles for loss. In addition, the Tigers in the last 7 games of 2020 only rushed over 100 yards twice; vs Stephen F Austin and vs FAU in the Montgomery Bowl. In order to have any chance for playing on December 4th, Memphis will need to improve these numbers.
The strength for Memphis’ offense this season should be the passing game. RS-JR WR Calvin Austin III (1,053 yards and 11 touchdowns in 63 receptions last season) is back along with longtime RS-SR Tight End Sean Dykes (581 yards and 7 touchdowns in 47 receptions last season). However, even the passing game must replace the #2 WR spot, as Tahj Washington has transferred to USC. Silverfield has another option at WR in former Austin Peay QB Jeremiah Oatsvall.
Over on the defensive side, the front loses Joseph Dorceus to conference opponent Tulane, but does return some players such as DE Morris Joseph (JR), who led the team with 7 sacks and 52 tackles for loss, and DE Wardalis Ducksworth (RS-JR). At Nose Tackle, Kajuan Robinson (FR) and Maurice White (JR) are also back. Behind the line, the LB position also returns SR JJ Russell and SO Jalil Clemons.
The backfield, the weakest part of the 2020 defense, might also be the most improved position in 2021. While the Tigers lose CB TJ Carter to TCU, they do return RS-SR CB Jacobi Francis and bring in Michigan State transfer Julian Barnett. The strongest position on defense this season should be the safety position, with RS-SO Quindell Johnson (81 stops and 3 picks), RS-JR Rodney Owens (53 tackles and 3 picks), and RS-SR Tyrez Lindsey (43 solo tackles and 1 fumble recovery) each returning.
While Memphis does return a lot on defense, former Colorado HC and current Memphis DC Mike MacIntyre will need to improve the passing defense which allowed 289.2 yards per game, the second worst in the conference. In addition, special teams will have to replace longtime kicker Riley Patterson, which could be a dog fight between FR Noah Grant and FR Caleb Hawkins.
Taking a look at Memphis’ schedule for 2021, we get:
| Saturday, September 4, 2021 | Memphis vs Nicholls | Liberty Bowl Stadium, Memphis, TN |
| Saturday, September 11, 2021 | Memphis @ Arkansas State | Centennial Bank Stadium, Jonesboro, AR |
| Saturday, September 18, 2021 | Memphis vs Mississippi State | Liberty Bowl Stadium, Memphis, TN |
| Saturday, September 25, 2021 | Memphis vs UTSA | Liberty Bowl Stadium, Memphis, TN |
| Saturday, October 2, 2021 | Memphis @ Temple | Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, PA |
| Saturday, October 9, 2021 | Memphis @ Tulsa | HA Chapman Stadium, Tulsa, OK |
| Thursday, October 14, 2021 | Memphis vs Navy | Liberty Bowl Stadium, Memphis, TN |
| Friday, October 22, 2021 | Memphis @ UCF | Bounce House, Orlando, FL |
| Saturday, October 30, 2021 | BYE WEEK | N/a |
| Saturday, November 6, 2021 | Memphis vs SMU | Liberty Bowl Stadium, Memphis, TN |
| Saturday, November 13, 2021 | Memphis vs East Carolina | Liberty Bowl Stadium, Memphis, TN |
| Friday, November 19, 2021 | Memphis @ Houston | TDECU Stadium, Houston, TX |
| Saturday, November 27, 2021 | Memphis vs Tulane | Liberty Bowl Stadium, Memphis, TN |
| Saturday, December 4, 2021 | AAC Championship (if eligible) | TBD |
Memphis starts off with FCS Nicholls before traveling to face Arkansas State. Afterwards the Tigers host SEC opponent Mississippi State followed by a dangerous CUSA opponent in UTSA. Then the Tigers must go through a 4 game stretch with 3 on the road, starting with Temple and AAC Runner-Up Tulsa. After a short week, Memphis hosts Navy on Thursday night before traveling to Orlando to face an improved UCF team under Gus Malzahn.
After a bye week, Memphis has a two-game home stand against SMU and East Carolina, before traveling on a short week to play Houston on Friday night. The Tigers wrap up their regular season with a home game against a sneaky Tulane squad.
Gone from the schedule are Cincinnati and USF, replaced by East Carolina and Tulsa (the latter being normally a divisional opponent, however with UConn’s departure, Tulsa wasn’t on the schedule last year).
Best-Case: Grant Gunnell doesn’t miss a beat and the rushing game improves immensely from 2020. Memphis starts off hot with convincing victories over Nicholls and Arkansas State. After a close win vs Mississippi State and a great win over UTSA, the Tigers start to climb the rankings again. After a victory over Temple, Memphis goes 2-1 against Tulsa, Navy, and UCF. A victory over a ranked SMU team jolts Memphis up the rankings further, and, after victories over ECU, Houston, and Tulane, make the AAC Championship game as an 11-1 team. They fall short at Cincinnati, but the door is open for a championship/NY6 spot in 2022.
Worst-Case: Memphis regresses further from 2020 and those close wins they had go the other way. Memphis manages to win vs Nicholls and beat Arkansas State in a nail-biter, but lose to Mississippi State and UTSA in uninspiring fashion. After a narrow victory over Temple, Memphis gets embarrassed at Tulsa before beating Navy to go 4-3. Unfortunately, the last stretch kills the Tigers, as UCF avenges their 2020 loss delivering Memphis a blowout in Orlando and SMU wins by double-digits in Memphis. East Carolina is their only victory of this stretch, as the Tigers lose their last two games at Houston and a heartbreaker at home vs Tulane. Memphis goes 5-7 and misses out on a bowl game for the first time since 2013. Ryan Silverfield is immediately placed on the hot seat for 2022.
ESPN’s FPI has Memphis’s win/loss percentage at 8.2-4.1. Too high or too low?
I feel like this is a tad too high, though not inconceivable. Memphis does have the talent to ensure another winning season, and I wouldn’t be surprised at 8-4. However, Memphis has to replace a lot of production, so I think the Tigers will go 7-5 with losses to Mississippi State, Tulsa, UCF, SMU, and Houston. It will be enough for an 8th straight winning season dating back to 2014, but it will be a season well below the expectations Memphis fans have set in recent years.
#5 Houston
Only six years ago the Cougars captured the first AAC championship, beating rival Temple 24-13. They went on to thrash 9th-ranked FSU at the Peach Bowl vs FSU en route to a 13-1 season. After their second season (9-3 including a win over #5 Louisville), coach Tom Herman left to Texas, where he was fired after four winning seasons. His understudy Major Applewhite led Houston to three bowl losses and two regular winning seasons before he was replaced by WVU Head Coach Dana Holgorsen on a five-year deal.
Under Holgorsen, however, the Cougars have fallen on hard times. 2019 was the first time Houston missed a bowl game since 2012, and they finished 4-8, while 2020 the Cougars suffered another losing season, finishing 3-5, including a loss to Hawaii in their bowl game.
Last season, all but one of Houston’s games, win or lose, came by double-digits (the exception being a heartbreaking 3-pt loss at Memphis after nearly coming back down 27-6). Houston beat Tulane, Navy, and USF by double-digits, but they were drubbed by BYU, UCF, Cincinnati, and Hawaii by similarly wide scores as well. However, those scores do not tell the whole story of the Cougars’ strange 2020 season.
Because of covid postponements and cancellations, Houston only started their season October 8th vs Tulane. The home game against Rice was postponed (eventually not being played in 2020) after the Owls delayed their season start; the Memphis game was delayed from September 18th to December; and the replacement on Sept 19, at Baylor, was also cancelled. In addition, Houston had to cancel games vs North Texas, at SMU, and vs Tulsa.
The Cougars are expecting 2021 to be a far more stable season, one that could present an opportunity to return to the AAC Contending class.
Houston returns long-time starting QB Clayton Tune (JR) who took the job after star QB D’Eriq King unceremoniously left for Miami in 2019. Tune passed for 2,048 yards and 15 touchdowns in 2020 (though his 10 interceptions are evidence of needed improvement.) Additionally, while the O-Line loses their best linemen (OT Braylon Jones), 4 of 5 starters return, including LT Reubin Unije (RS-SO) and RT Dennis Bardwell (SR). Add to that OC Jack Freeman (RS-SO), LG Max Banes (RS-SO), and LT Patrick Paul (RS-FR), and the depth is solid. If this line can stay healthy, Houston may do good things this year.
Gone from the RB position is Kyle Porter (rushed for 424 yards and 4 TDs in 2020). In his place is likely either RS-SR Mulbah Car (192 yards and 2 TDs) or RS-SR Chandler Smith (119 yards). In addition, there are other options such as Texas Tech transfer Ta’Zawn Henry (JR) and Freshman recruit Alton McCaskill, a 3-star prospect (and track star) who helped lead Oak Ridge High to its first playoff win in history. The WR core, on the other hand, badly needs retooling on offense, with Marquez Stevenson, Keith Corbin, and Tre’Von Bradley having either graduated or transferred (Corbin to Jackson State and Bradley to UTSA). RS-SO Nathaniel Dell, however, returns after catching 29 passes for 428 yards in 2020, along with longtime Cougar Jeremy Singleton (RS-JR). Added to them are transfers KeSean Carter (Texas Tech), Seth Green (Minnesota), and Jaylen Erwin (UCLA).
The defense’s main strengths in 2020 were sacking (#2 in the AAC) and total defense (#4). However, if the Cougars are going to take the next step, the defense must be more aggressive than allowing an average of 32 points per game like they did last year. The good news for Houston is that they return 11 starters and they should improve as a result. In the front, the main piece Houston must replace is DE Payton Turner. Fortunately, the Cougars have options in David Anenih (SR) and David Parish (RS-JR). The DTs are still loaded with starters Logan Hall (JR) and Olivier Charles-Pierre (SR).
In the LB core, the Cougars must replace Grant Stuard; but, again, there are choices. For starters, JR/Team Captain Donovan Mutin is back after making 61 stops in 2019 (before being injured in 2020, only starting 3 games). In addition, strongside LB Jo’Vanni Stewart (Grad-Transfer), and weakside LB Deontay Anderson (RS-SR) return to field a veteran group Holgorsen calls the “heart and soul” of the defense. In Mutin’s absence, redshirt freshman Mannie Nunnery and junior Malik Robinson gained playing experience. The backfield is also loaded for 2021, returning CB Marcus Jones (JR), CB Damarion Williams (SR) and FS Thabo Mwaniki (JR) among others.
On the Special Teams side, Dalton Witherspoon (RS-SR) is back as PK and Marcus Jones will be taking over Stevenson as Punt Returner/Kickoff Returner.
So, Houston does return a lot of talent for 2021. The really good news for Houston, however, is the schedule:
| Saturday, September 4, 2021 | Houston vs Texas Tech | NRG Stadium, Houston, TX |
| Saturday, September 11, 2021 | Houston at Rice | Rice Stadium, Houston, TX |
| Saturday, September 18, 2021 | Houston vs Grambling State | TDECU Stadium, Houston, TX |
| Saturday, September 25, 2021 | Houston vs Navy | TDECU Stadium, Houston, TX |
| Friday, October 1, 2021 | Houston at Tulsa | HA Chapman Stadium, Tulsa, OK |
| Thursday, October 7, 2021 | Houston at Tulane | Yulman Stadium, New Orleans, LA |
| Saturday, October 16, 2021 | BYE WEEK | N/a |
| Saturday, October 23, 2021 | Houston vs East Carolina | TDECU Stadium, Houston, TX |
| Saturday, October 30, 2021 | Houston vs SMU | TDECU Stadium, Houston, TX |
| Saturday, November 6, 2021 | Houston at USF | Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL |
| Saturday, November 13, 2021 | Houston at Temple | Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, PA |
| Friday, November 19, 2021 | Houston vs Memphis | TDECU Stadium, Houston, TX |
| Saturday, November 27, 2021 | Houston at UConn | Rentschler Field, East Hartford, CT |
| Saturday, December 4, 2021 | AAC Championship (if eligible) | TBD |
Houston starts off at NRG Stadium with their toughest OOC game vs Texas Tech, whose third year head coach (Matt Wells) could already be on the hot seat. After that, a “road” game 12 minutes down I-69 at city rival Rice. Then, home games against Grambling State and Navy will follow. The beginning of conference play may just be Houston’s toughest stretch of the season: at Tulsa and at Tulane, each on short weeks with Tulsa on Friday night and Tulane on Thursday night.
After the bye week, Houston hosts East Carolina and then what should be another good SMU team before taking a road stretch to two of the projected AAC bottom-dwellers at USF and Temple. Senior Night is on a Friday vs Memphis who will always be competitive, but the last game of the season will be at old conference foe UConn, who looks to be one of the worst FBS teams once again.
Gone from the schedule are UCF and Cincinnati – two of the best AAC teams – replaced by East Carolina and Temple. That, along with Memphis and SMU coming to Houston, should make this schedule very favorable for Holgorsen’s squad.
Best-Case: It’s not out of the realm of possibility for Houston to surprise the college football world and go undefeated with this schedule. Houston’s toughest OOC game is a mediocre Texas Tech team, while the Cougars also have the QB incumbency advantage over Memphis, Tulsa, and SMU. So, the Cougars start with a convincing win over Texas Tech, consecutive blowouts at Rice, vs Grambling State, and vs Navy. Houston then pulls off road wins at Tulsa and Tulane. After the bye week, Houston beats ECU and SMU convincingly, and wins at USF and Temple by double-digits. A big win over Memphis sets Houston up for an AAC Championship, possibly hosting Cincinnati. After a win over UConn, Houston is 12-0. Still, this Cougar team isn’t good enough to beat Cincinnati. Houston may not even be as good as UCF this year, so if Houston goes undefeated, the favorable schedule is a factor. Cincinnati proves that as Houston falls just short against the Bearcats at home. Still, Dana gets massive praise from Cougar fans and the college football world, which sets up a massive 2022 (or launches Dana back to a P5 job…?)
Worst-Case: I’m not sold on Dana just yet. He’s been solid at West Virginia but has yet to prove himself in Houston. Still, I don’t see him having another losing season with this schedule. If things go wrong and Houston loses to Texas Tech by double-digits, barely beats Rice, beats Grambling State and Navy, they might start off 3-1 with even a mediocre team. Not a bad start, right? Consecutive road losses to Tulsa and Tulane douse the enthusiasm, and after beating East Carolina but losing to SMU, Houston ends up splitting the first two games of November – if I were to pick, maybe beating USF but losing Temple, due to Houston’s historical dominance over the Bulls and their struggles with the Owls (actually losing at home to them in 2018 for example!). Either game Houston has no business losing, but they could drop one in the worst-case. After losing to Memphis again, Houston manages to beat UConn in the cold just to get bowl eligible at 6-6. Dana is shown the door as yet another failed Houston experiment, with the Cougars searching for their 4th head coach in 8 years. The program as a result gets further unstable.
ESPN’s FPI has Houston’s win/loss percentage at 8.0-4.2. Too high or too low?
A little low. In fact, I think 8-4 is the MINIMUM Houston can do with this schedule. Anything less than that is failure. It’s worth noting that University of Houston President Renu Khator said this as a “joke” after hiring Major Applewhite to replace Tom Herman in December 2016:
“The winning is defined at University of Houston as 10 and 2… We’ll fire coaches at 8 and 4.”
Renu Khator, December 10, 2016
Whether she was joking or not, it does seem like Houston has a habit for firing coaches for failing to live up to expectations. In this case, there were coaches that lost even with winning seasons; Tony LeVine after a 7-5 season in 2014 and Major Applewhite after an 8-4 in 2018. If Dana goes 8-4 in 2021, it’s not impossible to imagine the former WVU coach meeting the same fate; however, if it’s anything less than that, there’s a good possibility that the Holgorsen experiment ends after 3 seasons (especially with actually bad years in 2019/2020). To keep some kind of job security, 9-3 or better is probably the best option. Either way, it’s time for Dana Holgorsen to show what he was able to do at West Virginia and bring it to Houston in 2021.
Fortunately, it’s certainly possible with this schedule. In fact, I have Houston doing just that, going 9-3 with losses to Tulsa, Tulane, and SMU, while beating everyone else, including Texas Tech and Memphis. This sets up 2022 as a critical year for Dana’s Cougars.
#4 Tulsa
Tulsa has been one of the most… interesting teams last season. They went 6-3 last year, and 3 losses each came by single-digits; at Oklahoma State by 9, at Cincinnati by 3 in the AAC Championship, and vs Mississippi State by 2 in the Armed Forces Bowl. Even more fascinating was that out of their victories, only 2 came by double-digits; at USF by 42-13 and at Navy by 19-6.
In fact, a theme of Tulsa from 2020 was come-from-behind victories. For example, Tulsa was down 23-12 at UCF in halftime before winning 34-26; the Golden Hurricane was losing to ECU at home 17-3 in halftime before coming back to win 34-30 (helped by a very controversial call from the refs); Tulsa was down 24-7 at halftime vs SMU before pulling it out 28-24; and the team was down 14-0 vs Tulane in the beginning of the 4th quarter before getting the victory in double-overtime 30-24.
Tulsa also had horrible Covid-19 issues last season. Tulsa cancelled all but one of their out-of-conference games (Oklahoma State) and also missed their regular season finale at Houston. In addition, Tulsa was originally supposed to host 6th-ranked Cincinnati but with Covid plaguing both teams, the AAC eventually scheduled their meeting as the Championship game as a road game at Nippert (due to the Bearcats having a higher ranking in the CFP). Tulsa narrowly lost both that contest and the Armed Forces Bowl against Mississippi State, but their 18 AP ranking was their highest since 1952.
Tulsa has some new challenges in 2021. Gone from the QB position is Zach Smith who threw for 1,947 yards and 13 touchdowns last season as the starter. There are, however, capable back-ups; Davis Brim, for example, played in two games last year, passing for 268 yards and 2 touchdowns (266 of these yards were the comeback effort vs Tulane). Senior Seth Boomer is also available. After a 2018 season where he passed for 1,378 yards, he has not played for more than 3 games total in the last 2 seasons. Brim is figured to be the favorite to take the starting position.
Fortunately, Tulsa does return its offensive line, and its starters have plenty of experience; RS SO Tyler Smith (LT), RS SR Dante Bivens (LG), RS SR Gerard Wheeler (C), Grad Transfer Dylan Couch (RG), and RS SR Chris Paul (RT). RS SO X’Zauvea Gadlin (RT) is also back after opting out of last season. The RB core is also filled with veterans, such as SR Shamari Brooks, who, while missing out last season due to an injury, ran for 1,046 and 6 touchdowns in 2019. Filling out the depth at RB is RS JR Deneric Prince, who ran for 470 yards and 4 touchdowns in 2020 and previously played at Texas A&M. In addition, there is RS SO Christian Lovick, who’s still a young player who can get better, and RS SO Anthony Watkins who previously played at Mizzou before 2020.
Many experienced players return at wide receiver. SR Keylon Stokes had 46 receptions for 644 yards and 3 touchdowns in 2020 as well as 62 for 1,040 yds/6 TDs in 2019; RS SR Josh Johnson caught 38 receptions for 499 yards and a team-high 6 TDs in 2020; and JR JuanCarlos Santana caught 544 yds and 4 TDs. Whoever starts at QB for Tulsa will have plenty of talent and experience to assist him.
Defense perhaps mad the biggest difference for Tulsa in 2020. They were ranked 19th in the NCAA, only allowing 333 yards and 22 points. In 2021, the defensive line brings back all of their starters, including DT Jaxon Player (SR), a first team all-AAC tackle, and NT Tyarise Stevenson (Grad). Now, the hard part is replacing the #16 Draft Pick (1st round) Zaven Collins in the LB position; he was the heart and soul of the defense in 2020, and was one of the nation’s best linebackers. There is still talent in the LB position, as RS JR Justin Wright tied a team-high 63 tackles last season and will be back this year. Add to that grad players in Treyvon Reeves and Robert Revels, and, while it will still be hard to replace the effort of Zaven Collins, you still have plenty of experience behind the line.
In the backfield, cornerbacks Allie Green and Akayleb Evans have moved on to Mizzou via the transfer portal. Tyon Davis is a Senior who will likely start at one of the positions; otherwise the depth at corner is thin. On the other hand, Christian Williams is back with a whopping 6 years of experience at nickelback. The Safety position also returns RS JR Kendarian Ray, who tied with LB Wright for 63 tackles in 2020.
On the special teams side, Zack Long is back at the kicker position (FG, XP, and KO). The returner position is expected to fall to Keylon Stokes.
So, the keys to a successful 2021 season in Tulsa are replacing Zach Smith on the offensive side and Zaven Collins in the linebacking corps. The latter is a tall order; however, there are two other things that could be obstacles for Tulsa.
#1 Precedence – Ever since 2012, Tulsa has never gone back-to-back winning seasons. After their 2012 CUSA Championship, the Golden Hurricane went 3-9, 2-10, and 6-7 in 2013, 2014, and 2015 respectively. 2016 was a 10-3 season with a Miami Beach Bowl victory before falling back to a 2-10, 3-9, and 4-8 stretch in 2017, 2018, and 2019 respectively. In 2020, Tulsa went 6-3 and made it to the AAC Championship. Will 2021 be another drop to the bottom? Or will Tulsa use its veteran lineup to pull a second straight winning season for the first time since 2010-2012? It’s definitely possible, but it will not be easy to make it back to the championship, which brings us to…
#2 The Schedule:
| Thursday, September 2, 2021 | Tulsa vs UC Davis | HA Chapman Stadium, Tulsa, OK |
| Saturday, September 11, 2021 | Tulsa at Oklahoma State | Boone Pickens Stadium, Stillwater, OK |
| Saturday, September 18, 2021 | Tulsa at Ohio State | Ohio Stadium, Columbus, OH |
| Saturday, September 25, 2021 | Tulsa vs Arkansas State | HA Chapman Stadium, Tulsa, OK |
| Friday, October 1, 2021 | Tulsa vs Houston | HA Chapman Stadium, Tulsa, OK |
| Saturday, October 9, 2021 | Tulsa vs Memphis | HA Chapman Stadium, Tulsa, OK |
| Saturday, October 16, 2021 | Tulsa at USF | Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL |
| Saturday, October 23, 2021 | BYE WEEK | N/a |
| Friday, October 29, 2021 | Tulsa vs Navy | HA Chapman Stadium, Tulsa, OK |
| Saturday, November 6, 2021 | Tulsa at Cincinnati | Nippert Stadium, Cincinnati, OH |
| Saturday, November 13, 2021 | Tulsa at Tulane | Yulman Stadium, New Orleans, LA |
| Saturday, November 20, 2021 | Tulsa vs Temple | HA Chapman Stadium, Tulsa, OK |
| Saturday, November 27, 2021 | Tulsa at SMU | Gerald J Ford Stadium, Dallas, TX |
| Saturday, December 4, 2021 | AAC Championship (if eligible) | TBD |
Tulsa starts off with a UC Davis team who can occasionally put up good FCS seasons (though they did just play in the Spring due to Covid). After that is a difficult road stretch to not just Big 12 opponent Oklahoma State but also CFP contender/Big Ten champion Ohio State. After that is a 3-game home stretch with Arkansas State, followed by the beginning of conference play vs Houston on a Friday and the return of Memphis on the schedule the week after. Following that is a trip to Tampa to play USF, where Tulsa won 42-13 last year.
After the bye week, Tulsa resumes play on another Friday night game vs Navy before another 2 game road stretch, starting with a trip to Cincinnati for a rematch of the 2020 AAC Championship (being held in the same stadium Tulsa lost in 2020) and following that with a road game in New Orleans against Tulane. Tulsa’s last home game of the regular season comes right after against Temple. After that is the regular season finale at SMU.
Gone from the schedule are UCF and East Carolina, replaced by Temple and Memphis (normally a divisional opponent).
Best-Case: Tulsa starts off with a blowout over UC Davis, followed by a narrow loss to Oklahoma State like last year. If Tulsa could keep within 20 at Ohio State, that’s already a success due to the far superior talent of the Buckeyes. Either way, a 1-2 start is inevitable unless something really unprecedented happens. After that is where the fun starts with wins over Arkansas State, Houston, and the avenging of 2019 against Memphis to turn 1-2 into 4-2. A second-straight blowout win at USF puts Tulsa at 5-2 heading into the bye week. A win over Navy jolts Tulsa to a second straight bowl appearance for the first time since 2015-2016, and at 6-2, and Tulsa’s arrival in the Top 25. After a loss at Cincinnati, Tulsa shows up at Tulane, beats Temple, and wins at SMU for a 9-3 regular season as well as an AAC Championship appearance, once again at Cincinnati. In a game similar to last season, Tulsa falls short again and has to settle for a Gasparilla/Birmingham Bowl appearance but their first 10-win season since 2016 is still a considerable achievement the school can build on.
Worst-Case: Precedent strikes and Tulsa ends up disappointing in 2021. Tulsa struggles without Smith and Collins and UC Davis puts up a scare at home. Next they suffer blowout losses to Oklahoma State and a 60-pt hammer from Ohio State. After barely beating Arkansas State to go 2-2, Tulsa loses to Houston, Memphis, and, to make matters worse, a bad USF squad to go down 2-5. Tulsa ends up pulling a narrow win over Navy, but gets flattened by Cincinnati and loses to Tulane by double-digits to go 3-7 and miss out on a bowl game again. After a win vs Temple, SMU puts the nail in the coffin for Tulsa and the Golden Hurricane are 4-8 in 2021. Philip Montgomery is shown the door after mostly losing seasons.
ESPN’s FPI has Tulsa’s win/loss percentage at 5.7-6.3. Too high or too low?
Pretty low… Tulsa should be a bowl eligible team again this year. However, making it to the championship will be harder with Cincinnati and SMU on the road plus. Zaven Collins and Zach Smith will be hard to replace, however I have Tulsa going 7-5 in 2021, good enough for another winning season. I have Tulsa beating UC Davis, Arkansas State, Houston, Memphis, USF, Navy, and Temple while losing to OK State and Ohio State, as well as Cincinnati, Tulane, and SMU.
#3 SMU
The last two SMU seasons have been their best since 1986, when their success was brought to an untimely end by the “death penalty” in February 1987, a suspension of one year that eventually kept the Mustangs off the field until 1989. Thirty years later they managed their first winning season, finishing 10-3 in 2019, their best record since 1984. At one point, they were ranked #15 in the polls! Last season saw more success: a 7-3 record and ranking as high as #16.
In 2020, SMU started off 5-0 for the second straight year, including a win over 2019 AAC Champion Memphis, before losing to Cincinnati who would go on to win the AAC last year. The season turned sour towards the end after 2 straight losses, one at Tulsa and the other, shockingly, at East Carolina. SMU was slated to play UTSA at the Frisco Bowl, in addition, before their bowl got cancelled due to Covid concerns with the Mustangs. SMU was also forced to cancel rivalry matchups vs Houston and TCU.
The 2021 Mustangs may have some slight retooling to do, after losing their quarterback. Replacing Shane Buechele, who started for the last 2 seasons after transferring from Texas and passed for 7,024 yards, will not be easy. The current favorite is Oklahoma transfer Tanner Mordecai, who passed for 639 yards and 4 touchdowns in 12 games, although 4-Star recruit Preston Stone and UGA transfer John Seter are also on the depth chart.
The good news is that the O-Line returns every starter from last season, including LT Jaylon Thomas (SR), RT Beau Morris (R-SR), C Alan Ali (R-SR), LG Hayden Howerton (SR), and RG Justin Osborne (R-SO). In addition, the RB core will be loaded with AAC Co-Rookie of the Year Ulysses Bentley IV, who led the league in rushing in 2020 (913 yards), SO TJ McDaniel, and North Texas Grad Transfer Tre Siggers.
Wide receiver SR Reggie Roberson Jr returns after an injury sidelined him in 2020 after the 4th game; the former West Virginia transfer had 117 catches for 2,096 receiving yards and 17 touchdowns in 23 games across three seasons with the Mustangs. In addition, JR Rashee Rice (48 catches) and SR Danny Gray are back, but SMU must replace star Tight End Kylen Granson. Three transfer options, including OU transfer Grant Calcaterra, who caught 41 passes and 9 scores in three seasons with the Sooners compete for the spot.
Defensively, the Mustangs added new coaches, like new DC Jim Leavitt. After ranking 78th in total defense, SMU need to improve; though the Mustangs did rank #14 nationally in tackles per loss (averaging 7.6 per game), so there are reasons to be optimistic.
In fact, a total of 9 starters are returning on defense. On the line, R-SR Turner Coxe is back as well as JR Elijah Chatman (25 tackles, 3 sacks, and 7.5 tackles per loss). The linebacker position is even more loaded, with Seniors Delano Robinson (153 tackles in 2 seasons, including a team-high 77 in 2020) and Trevor Denbow (7.0 tackles per loss, 3 forced fumbles, 1 pick) rejoining the 2021 team along with SR Gary Wiley. In the backfield, JR CB Brandon Crossley, who led the team with 4 picks, is back along with JR S Chace Cromartie, plus Redshirt Seniors Chevin Calloway (S) and Ar’Mani Johnson (CB). Even better, the Mustangs have added UF transfer Jahari Rodgers at CB.
On special teams, SMU replaced PK Chris Naggar with Wazzu transfer Blake Mazza, who was 34-40 on field goals in 3 seasons at Pullman (and 127/133 X-Point attempts), plus Freshman recruit Brendan Hall (6’7”).
It’s clear that SMU is pretty loaded for 2021; however, it depends on how quickly SMU can integrate Buechele’s replacement with the core. The schedule also looks tough for a team replacing its QB:
| Saturday, September 4, 2021 | SMU vs Abilene Christian | Gerald J Ford Stadium, Dallas, TX |
| Saturday, September 11, 2021 | SMU vs North Texas | Gerald J Ford Stadium, Dallas, TX |
| Saturday, September 18, 2021 | SMU @ Louisiana Tech | Joe Aillet Stadium, Ruston, LA |
| Saturday, September 25, 2021 | SMU @ TCU | Amon G Carter Stadium, Ft Worth, TX |
| Saturday, October 2, 2021 | SMU vs USF | Gerald J Ford Stadium, Dallas, TX |
| Saturday, October 9, 2021 | SMU @ Navy | Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium, Annapolis, MD |
| Saturday, October 16, 2021 | BYE WEEK | N/a |
| Thursday, October 21, 2021 | SMU vs Tulane | Gerald J Ford Stadium, Dallas, TX |
| Saturday, October 30, 2021 | SMU @ Houston | TDECU Stadium, Houston, TX |
| Saturday, November 6, 2021 | SMU @ Memphis | Liberty Bowl Stadium, Memphis, TN |
| Saturday, November 13, 2021 | SMU vs UCF | Gerald J Ford Stadium, Dallas, TX |
| Saturday, November 20, 2021 | SMU @ Cincinnati | Nippert Stadium, Cincinnati, OH |
| Saturday, November 27, 2021 | SMU vs Tulsa | Gerald J Ford Stadium, Dallas, TX |
| Saturday, December 4, 2021 | AAC Championship (if eligible) | TBD |
SMU’s schedule starts off okay with home games against Abilene Christian and North Texas, plus a road game at Louisiana Tech. However, then the Mustangs must travel to TCU in a revenge matchup from SMU’s 2019 victory.
Conference play starts off with a home game against USF and a road game at Navy before a bye week. After the bye week, SMU will host Tulane on a Thursday-night matchup, before going into a gauntlet; @ Houston, @ Memphis, at home vs UCF, and @ defending AAC Champion Cincinnati. SMU hosts AAC Runner-Up Tulsa on Senior Night.
Gone from the schedule are East Carolina and Temple, replaced by UCF and USF.
Best-Case: Here, Mordecai (or whoever’s the QB) integrates flawlessly into the offense. SMU starts off with blowout victories over Abilene Christian and North Texas. Then, the Mustangs win decisively at Louisiana Tech, avenging the 2017 Frisco Bowl loss. After that, SMU goes into Ft Worth and pulls off yet another victory over TCU, propelling the Mustangs into the Top 25 for their third straight season. A win over USF clinches SMU’s third consecutive 5-0 start, and the Mustangs win at Navy too. SMU then beats Tulane and Houston before achieving liftoff with their first wins at Memphis since 2013 and UCF (2011). The Mustangs lose their only game on College GameDay at Cincinnati before thrashing Tulsa to clinch an 11-1 record, their best since the 1982 National Championship season, and their first conference championship appearance since 2010. Sadly, the Mustangs lose at Cincinnati on December 4th, however this scenario would solidify SMU as a powerhouse in the AAC and put Sonny Dykes on the market for possible P5 coaching jobs.
Worst-Case: Mordecai or whoever’s the QB takes longer to find rhythm, and the Mustangs start off sluggish. They beat Abilene Christian, North Texas, and Louisiana Tech, but get blasted by TCU in a revenge matchup from 2019. SMU beats USF, but loses a shocker at Navy. After beating Tulane, the Mustangs lose 4 straight games (Houston, Memphis, UCF, Cincinnati) and beat Tulsa just managing to become bowl eligible at 6-6, which brings up serious concerns for 2022 after their senior core exits.
ESPN’s FPI has SMU’s win/loss percentage at 7.0-5.1. Too high or too low?
Eh… I feel like it’s low, but not unreasonably low. SMU has a tough schedule, make no mistake, but SMU could still get to 10 wins under the right circumstances. They have the talent to do so. For me, I have the Mustangs losing at TCU, at Cincinnati, and vs UCF to go 9-3.
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