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2020 was a challenging year for everyone, but sports was perhaps especially affected. From the NBA moving the rest of their 2019-20 regular season and playoffs into a Walt Disney World “bubble” to some college football conferences having 6-game seasons (after conferences like the PAC-12, MAC, and Big Ten reversed course on their decisions to cancel their seasons), sports felt very strange last fall. Many College Football teams played in stadiums to extremely limited audiences when were fans allowed at all.
This season American Athletic Conference will have 11 teams after the departure of UConn last July, and there will be no divisions as there were from 2015-2019 (East/West.) With teams having spring practice and full schedules, fans are hoping this season will be a return to normalcy, so let’s investigate the AAC in depth beginning with the bottom, the weakest teams in the AAC heading into the 2020-2021. Caveat Lector: Remember this is college sports and anything can change.
#11 Temple
The Owls had a tough season last year, going 1-6 with their shortened schedule. 2021 doesn’t look like it’s going to get any easier for Temple.
Clinching their first losing record since 2013 was only part of the Owls’ struggles in 2020. For starters, Temple couldn’t even begin their season until mid-October due to restrictions from the city of Philadelphia. It was October 10th when the Owls could finally play, traveling to Annapolis to take on Navy.
Secondly, this team was plagued with players sitting out, like starting QB Anthony Russo. As the season continued, the team’s roster grew thinner and thinner, and blowout losses to Tulane (3-38), SMU (23-47), UCF (13-38), and East Carolina (3-28) followed. Mercifully, their scheduled season finale against the eventual champions Cincinnati was cancelled. By the time their season ended, Temple’s only victory was a 39-37 nail-biter against a 1-8 USF team that won zero FBS games.
For 2021, Temple’s major issue is the massive amount of talent departing from that 2020 team. Anthony Russo’s transfer to Michigan State is a prime example. In addition, Temple loses another backup QB as Trad Beatty retired from the sport after a concussion ended his 2020 season.
Incumbent R-SO Re-al Mitchell and UGA Transfer D’Wan Mathis (a former 4-Star recruit) appear the main contenders for Russo’s spot. Other options include Kamal Gray (walk-on), Matt Duncan (FR), Mariano Valenti (R-FR transfer from NIU), TJ Pergine, and Matthew Vitale. Mitchell has the edge due to his familiarity with the playbook and game experience, but Mathis’s talent and SEC experience are also factors.
Running back Tayvon Ruley, who rushed for 306 yards last season, will be joined by UF transfer Iverson Clement (SO) and Illinois transfer Ra’Von Bonner (SR). The receiving corps are led by Jadan Blue (R-JR), who became Temple’s first 1,000-yard receiver in 2019, and Randle Jones (Graduate). The offensive line returns some experience up front with Center CJ Perez (SR) and Right Tackle Adam Klein (JR).
The defense, on the other hand, has a lot more questions. Temple must replace their top three defensive linemen in Dan Archibong (declared for the NFL draft), Ifeanyi Maijeh (transferred to Rutgers), and Arnold Ebiketie (transferred to Penn State). Temple also lost Khris Banks to Boston College. Three transfers expected to compete are Washington State’s Will Rodgers (SR), UNC’s Xach Gill (JR), and UNC’s Lancine Turay (SO). At the linebacker position, Temple loses Isaiah Graham-Mobley while returning Graduate William Kwenkeu. In the backfield, Temple has to replace both starting cornerbacks (Christian Braswell and Linwood Crump); options include Graduate student Freddie Johnson, Redshirt Freshman Elijah Clark, Junior Jeremy Jennings (who opted out of 2020), Redshirt Junior Ty Mason (who opted out of 2020), and UConn transfer Keyshawn Paul (JR). The strongest position in defense for 2021 is safety where RS-Senior Amir Tyler as well as Junior Jalen Ware return. In addition, Freshman Alex Odom, Junior DaeSean Winston (who opted out of 2020), and Redshirt Freshman MJ Griffin are also available.
Looking at Temple’s 2021 schedule, it certainly doesn’t look very friendly for a team trying to rebound back to a bowl season:
| Thurs, September 2, 2021 | Temple @ Rutgers | SHI Stadium, Piscataway, NJ |
| Sat, September 11, 2021 | Temple @ Akron | InfoCision Stadium, Akron, OH |
| Sat, September 18, 2021 | Temple vs Boston College | Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, PA |
| Sat, September 25, 2021 | Temple vs Wagner | Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, PA |
| Sat, October 2, 2021 | Temple vs Memphis | Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, PA |
| Fri, October 8, 2021 | Temple @ Cincinnati | Nippert Stadium, Cincinnati, OH |
| Sat, October 16, 2021 | BYE WEEK | N/a |
| Sat, October 23, 2021 | Temple @ USF | Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL |
| Sat, October 30, 2021 | Temple vs UCF | Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, PA |
| Sat, November 6, 2021 | Temple @ East Carolina | Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium, Greenville, NC |
| Sat, November 13, 2021 | Temple vs Houston | Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, PA |
| Sat, November 20, 2021 | Temple @ Tulsa | H.A. Chapman Stadium, Tulsa, OK |
| Sat, November 27, 2021 | Temple vs Navy | Lincoln Financial, Field, Philadelphia, PA |
| Sat, December 4, 2021 | AAC Championship (if eligible) | TBD |
Temple first starts off with a road trip to a Rutgers team that showed signs of progress last season under Greg Schiano and could soon leave the Big Ten cellar. Afterwards Temple faces a winnable game at former MAC foe Akron (who’s struggled in recent years). Then Temple has their home opener against a Boston College who looks to be trending in the right direction under Head Coach Jeff Hafley. Both teams have gone on different paths since their last meeting in 2018 when the Eagles won 45-35 in Chestnut Hill. Afterwards, Temple has a game they should absolutely win vs FCS Wagner.
Then conference play starts as the Owls host a talented Memphis team before traveling on a short week to Nippert Stadium to play the defending AAC champions, Cincinnati. After a bye week, Temple faces their most winnable conference game in Tampa, facing USF. Temple then goes on a difficult stretch vs Gus Malzahn’s UCF team (who has absolutely owned Temple recently) and a road trip to an East Carolina team expected to improve. Then Temple will host a tough Houston team while traveling to Tulsa. Temple’s last game of the season will not be easy either against Navy.
Gone from the schedule are Tulane and SMU, replaced by Houston and Tulsa.
Best-Case: Temple competes against Rutgers but falls short. The Owls respond with an impressive effort in a victory at Akron while putting up a fight against Boston College. After a blowout win over Wagner, Temple nearly upsets Memphis while losing to Cincinnati by double-digits to go 2-4. Temple then wins their third straight victory vs USF in Tampa and puts up a fight vs UCF but falls short at 3-5. After a victory at East Carolina, Temple loses to Houston and Tulsa to end their postseason ambitions, but ends their season on a high note with a victory vs Navy. Temple finishes 5-7 while Rod Carey is given another chance to build a roster for 2022.
Worst-Case: Blowout after blowout. Temple is completely flattened by Rutgers to start off the season. Afterwards, a loss to Akron sets the tone for the rest of Temple’s season at 0-2. Temple gets crushed by Boston College and pulls off a lackluster victory vs Wagner to go 1-3. That Wagner win would be their only victory, as Temple gets blown out by Memphis and Cincinnati while losing to USF. Their season gets worse with blowout losses to UCF, East Carolina, Houston, Tulsa, and Navy, and Temple finishes 1-11, their second consecutive 1-win season. Even a 1-11 season does not doom Coach Carey, because after losing five coaches to Power Five teams, Temple extended Carey for six seasons at $2M annually. The first two seasons have a $10M buyout clause, an amount Temple cannot afford, so Carey will have more time.
ESPN’s FPI has Temple’s win/loss percentage at 3.5-8.5. Too high or too low?
I think it’s pretty high considering the amount of talent that Temple is losing either to the NFL or the transfer portal. The loss of Anthony Russo in particular will likely hurt an already ailing team. I believe the Owls go 2-10 with wins over Wagner and Akron. Temple is competitive against USF, Navy, and an improved East Carolina team (and possibly against a team they’re big underdogs in like Memphis or Houston) but loses all their conference games. In the 2021 offseason, Temple will move on from Rod Carey and will be looking for their new coach for 2022.
#10 USF
The Bulls are in the midst of rebuilding, as last season was pretty much Year 0 for second-year head coach Jeff Scott.
USF was terrible and went 1-8 in 2020, with their only victory against an FCS team, the Citadel (27-6). While the Bulls showed some spark down the line, such as their competitive play against Memphis and UCF, USF was mostly blown out, managing to lose to East Carolina (3-6) at home and Temple (1-6).
USF should improve in 2021, however this team is still a couple years away (at least) from being competitive. So, let’s go over the roster.
For starters, the QB position is now wide open with incumbent QB Jordan McCloud transferring to Arizona. The favorite here is UNC transfer Cade Fortin (RS-JR), though Miami transfer Jarrell Williams (RS-SO) isn’t too far behind. In addition, the Bulls have a promising young freshman recruit in Timmy McClain, ranked very highly on various top Dual-QB recruit lists; though it is likely USF will give McClain a redshirt this season, unless needed, saving him for 2022 onward.
The RB core loses a key veteran in Johnny Ford, transferring to FAU. In this position, the Bulls have Kelley Joiner (JR), who led the team with 368 yards and a score, and Brian Battie (SO) who averaged 7 yards per carry. The WR core returns 4 of its top 5 receivers, each with potential to take a step forward; Bryce Miller (RS-SR), Latrell Williams (RS-SR), Omarion Dollison (SO), and Xavier Weaver (JR).
Up front, the offensive line returns all 5 of their starters: LG Donovan Jennings (SR), LT Demetris Harris (RS-SR), C Brad Cecil (SR), RG Michael Wiggs (GR), and RT Joshua Blanchard (RS-SO). That will be key to how well the Bulls improve in 2021, as last season, the offensive line was responsible for 30 sacks and was ranked #113 out of 127 teams and last place in the AAC. In addition, the offense only averaged 365 yards and 23 points per game; that’s not going to cut it in AAC play.
The defense returns nearly their entire core. Let’s start with returning production in the front: NT Kelvin Pinkney (GR), DT Thad Mangum (GR-TR), and DE Darrien Grant (RS-SR) all return with strong size. However, most of the defense’s production in 2020 came from the linebacker core, as MLB Antonio Grier (SR) and WLB Dwayne Boyles (SR) combined for a 103 tackles, and both return in 2021. The secondary is the spot with the most turnover this season. The Bulls lose their starting CBs KJ Sails (51 tackles, 3 INTs in 2 years) and Mike Hampton (108 tackles) to the NFL, as well as their starting Safeties Nick Roberts and Bentlee Sanders to the transfer portal. They do have CB Daquan Evans (JR) returning, coming up with 28 tackles a team high 3 interceptions last season for 138 return yards, as well as Mac Harris (SO) and Christopher Townsel (SO) rounding out the CB position. In the safety position, Mehki LaPointe (RS-SR) and Vincent Davis (SR) are back.
The Bulls do have talent returning on defense; however this unit in 2020 allowed 441.4 yards per game (#94 out of 127), and came up with only 42 tackles for losses and 7 sacks. The defense will require tremendous improvement to give the Bulls any shot of making a bowl game for their first time since 2018. Fortunately, one of this unit’s strengths in 2020 was interceptions and return yards. USF was ranked #29 in that category with 10 interceptions, and returned them for 220 yards, #11 in the FBS.
So, let’s look at USF’s 2021 football schedule:
| Thurs, September 2, 2021 | USF @ NC State | Carter-Finley Stadium, Raleigh, NC |
| Sat, September 11, 2021 | USF vs Florida | Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL |
| Sat, September 18, 2021 | USF vs Florida A&M | Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL |
| Sat, September 25, 2021 | USF @ BYU | LaVell Edwards Stadium, Provo, UT |
| Sat, October 2, 2021 | USF @ SMU | Gerald J. Ford Stadium, Dallas, TX |
| Sat, October 9, 2021 | BYE WEEK | N/a |
| Sat, October 16, 2021 | USF vs Tulsa | Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL |
| Sat, October 23, 2021 | USF vs Temple | Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL |
| Thurs, October 28, 2021 | USF @ East Carolina | Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium, Greenville, NC |
| Sat, November 6, 2021 | USF vs Houston | Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL |
| Fri, November 12, 2021 | USF vs Cincinnati | Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL |
| Sat, November 20, 2021 | USF @ Tulane | Yulman Stadium, New Orleans, LA |
| Fri, November 26, 2021 | USF @ UCF | Bounce House, Orlando, FL |
| Sat, December 4, 2021 | AAC Championship (if eligible) | TBD |
USF starts off with a Thursday night road game at Raleigh, facing an NC State team who’s recently risen towards the upper echelon of the ACC, minus a bad year in 2019. Afterwards USF “hosts” the Florida Gators in Tampa, a team who’s sure to attract lots of Gator fans into Raymond James. Then, USF faces a game they should absolutely win vs FCS Florida A&M before traveling to Utah to play BYU.
Conference play commences with a road game at SMU, a strong player in the AAC in recent years, before giving the Bulls a bye week. A two-game home stand follow with 2020 AAC runner-up Tulsa and USF’s most winnable AAC game, Temple, visiting. However, the last stretch, as has become common for USF recently, is brutal, starting off with a short week to travel to Greenville, playing what should be an improved East Carolina team. Following that is the last two home games of the season, both very difficult: Houston and defending AAC Champion Cincinnati. After that is two more difficult road games, going to New Orleans to play Tulane and then to Orlando against Gus Malzahn’s UCF squad (who only need one more win to take the War On I-4 series lead in football).
Gone from the schedule are Navy and Memphis, replaced by SMU and Tulane.
Best-Case: After two tough losses at NC State and vs Florida, the Bulls look improved against Florida A&M, winning by over 50 points, the most points the Bulls scored since SC State in 2019. Falling short against BYU and coming really close to beating SMU, the Bulls benefit from a bye week and upset Tulsa, beat Temple, and win at East Carolina to even the record at 4-4. But then the dreaded November comes in: USF loses their last 4 games (Houston, Cincinnati, at Tulane, and at UCF), each showing fight, but falling short. USF’s season ends with a heartbreaking 4-8, with positive momentum heading into 2022.
Worst-Case: It’s 2020 all over again for USF. After looking not even close to competitive against NC State and Florida, USF pulls off an uninspiring win over Florida A&M, similar to the Citadel win last season. That would be the Bulls’ lone win, getting blown out by BYU and SMU soon after. The bye week doesn’t help matters, as Tulsa crushes the Bulls in Tampa for the 2nd consecutive year. In addition, USF manages to lose to a terrible Temple team at home. A second consecutive blowout loss to East Carolina all but seals the Bulls’ fate for 2021 at 1-7. Jeff Scott is actually fired midseason with things getting much worse. Blowout losses to Houston, Cincinnati, Tulane, and, worst of all, a 60-pt loss to UCF end the Bulls season at 1-11, their second straight 1-win season. USF is, once again, searching for answers heading into 2022 on another coaching search, just 2 years after the last one.
ESPN’s FPI has USF’s win/loss percentage at 4.2-7.9. Too high or too low?
I feel like this is a pretty optimistic take on USF’s season. This team just has so many problem, and their schedule does the Bulls no favors. I think USF improves a bit, going 2-10 with wins over Florida A&M and Temple. Expect some games in the November stretch to be close, but ultimately the Bulls improve by one win. USF simply has a long way to go; like I said, I’d expect this team to be competitive again in a couple years.
I will add that an off-season could do wonders with this team, as Covid-19 was a major factor with the Bulls’ struggles. Covid breakouts were a problem with USF, leading to cancellations of the FAU and Navy games. Fortunately, those struggles are in the past, but the Bulls still have a hard road ahead.
#9 Navy
Probably one of the teams that struggled the most with Covid was the Navy Midshipmen. After achieving an 11-2 record in 2019, Navy managed only 3-7 in the 2020 season, their only wins an impressive comeback at Tulane, a narrow home win against Temple, and a 27-23 nail-biter win against ECU in Greenville.
Their 2020 opener against BYU was a case in point with the Mids looking out of shape in a 55-3 blowout loss due in part to lack of physical practice. In addition, Navy went nearly a month without playing due to a Covid breakout in November, pushing back Tulsa and Memphis to late November/early December, as well as cancellation of the road game at USF because of a Covid outbreak inside the Bulls’ program.
Even so, covid-19 was not the only factor in Navy’s tremendous decline from 11-2 in 2019 to 3-7, their second losing season out of the last 3 seasons. To begin with, the triple-option offense Navy is accustomed to using under Ken Niumatalolo failed to be physical enough. The Mids only averaged 178 rushing yards per game and 16.6 points per outing. They managed a total of only 13 points in their last three games.
In 2021, however, the QB position loses Dalen Morris and Tyger Goslin, with the latter being moved to the slotback position. So… who will fight for the starting job? The three likeliest candidates are Xavier Arline (SO), Tai Lavatai (SO), and Jayden Umbarger (SO).
Leading rusher Nelson Smith has graduated, but the FB position returns Jamale Carothers (SR), while the SB adds Tyger Goslin (SR) from the QB position and returns Chance Warren (SR). Navy’s offense is not designed for passing, being a triple-option offense, however the WR core returns Mychal Cooper (SR) and Mark Walker (JR)
Navy’s worst issue is their offensive line, as Navy struggled to set up blocking for the rushing game all 2020. If the offensive line is not working and is not physical, Navy’s offense will fail badly. Fortunately, Navy does return starting Center Pierce Banbury (SR), but the rest of the offensive line corps will be improvised with Kip Frankland, Nick Bernacchi, and Bryce Texeira having the most experience.
Defensively, Navy has similar problems. After their three weeks off in November, Navy’s defense markedly improved. Navy held teams to an average of 37 points per game in their first 7 games. After the break Navy held teams to an average of 14.7 points per game in 3 games to Memphis, Tulsa, and Army, though the Mids’ season was long over by then (Navy scored only 13 points in its last 3 games, including a shutout loss to Army 15-0). Pass rushing was a problem all year, only having six sacks and 45 tackles per loss. On the front, Donald Berniard Jr (SO) is back at NT. The rest of the starting positions on the line is all in the rotation.
The Linebacker position has the most promise in the form of Diego Fagot (SR), as well as Nicholas Straw (JR), and Tama Tuitele (JR). The backfield is also returning most of its starters, including Mitchell West (SR) and Kevin Brennan (SR), plus two other seniors in Jamal Glenn (SR) and Michael McMorris (SR). However, that backfield only picked off 3 passes all season.
The key defensively is to fix the pass rush and improve physicality. That will help improve the defensive core. This seems to be a theme with Navy’s struggles in 2020 and how it can improve; the players must be physical for the team to succeed. Anything less than that will guarantee another bad season. Again, a lot of the physical struggles, at least initially, came from lack of physical practice due to Covid restrictions.
With that in mind, let’s look at an even harder obstacle Navy must overcome to return to a winning record; the schedule:
| Sat, September 4, 2021 | Navy vs Marshall | Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium, Annapolis, MD |
| Sat, September 11, 2021 | Navy vs Air Force | Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium, Annapolis, MD |
| Sat, September 18, 2021 | BYE WEEK | N/a |
| Sat, September 25, 2021 | Navy @ Houston | TDECU Stadium, Houston, TX |
| Sat, October 2, 2021 | Navy vs UCF | Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium, Annapolis, MD |
| Sat, October 9, 2021 | Navy vs SMU | Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium, Annapolis, MD |
| Thurs, October 14, 2021 | Navy @ Memphis | Liberty Bowl Stadium, Memphis, TN |
| Sat, October 23, 2021 | Navy vs Cincinnati | Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium, Annapolis, MD |
| Fri, October 29, 2021 | Navy @ Tulsa | H.A. Chapman Stadium, Tulsa, OK |
| Sat, November 6, 2021 | Navy @ Notre Dame | Notre Dame Stadium, Notre Dame, IN |
| Sat, November 13, 2021 | BYE WEEK | N/a |
| Sat, November 20, 2021 | Navy vs East Carolina | Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium, Annapolis, MD |
| Sat, November 27, 2021 | Navy @ Temple | Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, PA |
| Sat, December 4, 2021 | AAC Championship (if eligible) | TBD |
| Sat, December 11, 2021 | Navy vs Army | MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ |
Navy starts off with a tough G5 opponent in Marshall and hosts Air Force who’s always dangerous before getting a Week 3 Bye Week. This short break is followed by seven straight games. This brutal gauntlet starts off with an improving Houston on the road, a home game against UCF team who should once again return towards the top, a home game against SMU who have given the Mids trouble recently, a short week at Memphis, a home match against defending AAC Champion Cincinnati, a short week at AAC Runner-Up Tulsa, and a road trip to South Bend to play Notre Dame.
Just brutal.
After the second bye week, Navy hosts East Carolina before traveling to Temple to wrap up conference play. Then Navy plays the annual Army–Navy Game at Metlife Stadium in New Jersey, near New York City.
To add further salt to the wound, gone from the schedule are Tulane and USF, replaced by two of the top teams in the conference, Cincinnati and UCF.
Best-Case: Navy starts off with wins over Marshall and Air Force before heading into the 7-straight game gauntlet. After losing to Houston and UCF, the Mids get a win over SMU and beat Memphis, before losing Cincinnati, at Tulsa, and at Notre Dame to go 4-5. Wins over East Carolina and Temple send Navy back to a bowl game, and a win vs Army gives the Mids a 7-5 record as well as a trip to, likely, the Military Bowl. While Navy perhaps doesn’t field a team as solid as 2019 (or one with as favorable of a schedule), don’t underestimate Ken Niumatalolo’s ability to win.
Worst-Case: There is also a possibility that Navy ends up 0-12 with this schedule, especially if the Mids don’t improve. Marshall starts Navy off with a bad loss looking like one of the last games of 2020. Air Force then defeats the Mids for the first time in Annapolis since 2011. The entire 7-game stretch is filled with blowout after blowout, with maybe an occasional close defeat. A loss to East Carolina for the first time since 2011 is what makes things just depressing and losing to a terrible Temple team looks even worse. This nightmare season ends with another shutout loss to Army, handing Navy their first winless season since 2001.
ESPN’s FPI has Navy’s win/loss percentage at 3.3-8.7. Too high or too low?
I view this projection as pretty fair. Navy has surprised me before (for example, 2018 to 2019) so I wouldn’t count them out, but I feel that the odds are against the Mids at this moment, with the team still growing as well as a very unfavorable schedule. I think they’ll beat Marshall, Air Force, and Temple, but lose everyone else to finish 3-9, leaving Navy with more questions than answers.
#8 East Carolina
Mike Houston has the Pirates trending the right direction.
Don’t get me wrong, ECU was less than stellar in 2020 and had a sixth consecutive losing season dating back to 2015. The season was plagued with Covid and 4 blowout losses (UCF, Cincinnati, Tulane, and Georgia State). However, the Pirates did win 3 games, including an upset over SMU. In addition, ECU managed to beat USF for the first time since 2014 (after 5 straight losses) and Temple for the first time since 1995 (after being 0-6 against the Owls since joining the AAC). There were also two close losses to Navy and AAC runner-up Tulsa, with the latter apparently having corrupt officiating. I expect the Pirates to improve in 2021 and possibly make a bowl game for the first time since 2014.
On offense, the Pirates look promising. QB has Holton Ahlers (SR) returning, leading an offense that averaged over 400 yards and 30 points per game. This promising player will likely take another step forward in his 4th year in Greenville. The RB core does lose longtime veteran Darius Pinnix to the transfer portal, but do have Rahjai Harris (SO) and Keaton Mitchell (SO) who both had promising rookie campaigns last season. Similarly, the WR core loses veteran receiver Blake Proehl to the NFL, but brings back Tyler Snead (RS-JR), who had 53 catches as an ample midrange target, and CJ Johnson (JR), who averaged 21 yards per catch and has a team-high of 6 scores. In addition, all 5 starters on the offensive line are back.
It’s the defense, which allowed 447 yards and 35 points per game, that needs the most work. Fortunately, ECU only loses one starter, and returns everyone else. A full offseason can do wonders for this squad.
In front, they bring back DT Rick D’Abreu (SO) and DT Elijah Morris (FR), as well as hybrid linebacker/DE Damir Faison (RS-SO). The pass rush is key to fixing ECU’s defensive flaws. In addition, the Pirates must replace Chris Willis on the other DE position. Fix those problems, and the rest of the defense should improve enough to be a key difference maker for this team. The linebacker position has talent in the form of Xavier Smith (JR), Bruce Bivens (SR), and Jireh Wilson (RS-SO), arguably the biggest contributors behind the line. The backfield also has strong players in CB Ja’Quan McMillian (SO) and S Shawn Dourseau (RS-SO); in addition to Jireh Wilson who also plays Safety.
Now, the hard part is the schedule:
| Thursday, September 2, 2021 | East Carolina vs Appalachian State | Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC |
| Sat, September 11, 2021 | East Carolina vs South Carolina | Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium, Greenville, NC |
| Sat, September 18, 2021 | East Carolina @ Marshall | Joan C. Edwards Stadium, Huntington, WV |
| Sat, September 25, 2021 | East Carolina vs Charleston Southern | Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium, Greenville, NC |
| Sat, October 2, 2021 | East Carolina vs Tulane | Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium, Greenville, NC |
| Sat, October 9, 2021 | East Carolina @ UCF | Bounce House, Orlando, FL |
| Sat, October 16, 2021 | BYE WEEK | N/a |
| Sat, October 23, 2021 | East Carolina @ Houston | TDECU Stadium, Houston, TX |
| Thurs, October 28, 2021 | East Carolina vs USF | Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium, Greenville, NC |
| Sat, November 6, 2021 | East Carolina vs Temple | Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium, Greenville, NC |
| Sat, November 13, 2021 | East Carolina @ Memphis | Liberty Bowl Stadium, Memphis, TN |
| Sat, November 20, 2021 | East Carolina @ Navy | Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium, Annapolis, MD |
| Sat, November 27, 2021 | East Carolina vs Cincinnati | Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium, Greenville, NC |
| Sat, December 4, 2021 | AAC Championship (if eligible) | TBD |
ECU starts off with a matchup against one of the best G5 teams, Appalachian State, at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, followed by the home opener vs the South Carolina Gamecocks. The Pirates then face an old CUSA rival in Marshall on the road before hosting FCS Charleston Southern.
Conference play starts with Tulane at home followed by a road trip to Orlando to play UCF under Gus Malzahn. After a midseason bye week, ECU must travel to Houston before returning home for a two-game home stand, starting with USF on a short week followed by Temple. The Pirates must play two more road games at Memphis and Navy before hosting the defending champions Cincinnati on Senior Night.
Gone from the schedule are Tulsa and SMU, replaced by Houston and Memphis.
Best-Case: The Pirates start off 2021 the right way with an impressive victory over Appalachian State and then pull off a shocking home win over rebuilding South Carolina. ECU then wins Marshall, Charleston Southern, and Tulane to start off 5-0, their best since 2014. The Pirates fight hard in Orlando but fall short against a rising UCF team and lose at Houston too. However, a win over USF seals ECU’s first bowl bid in 7 years and a victory over Temple has the Pirates at 7-2 with votes in the polls. The Pirates fall short at Memphis, but get over their Navy struggles with a win in Annapolis. The regular season ends with a near-upset of Cincinnati on Senior Night, falling short on a field goal attempt. East Carolina goes 8-4, matching their best record since 2014 and play in a bowl game with high expectations set for 2022.
Worst-Case: ECU shows no improvement and, in fact, takes a step back in 2021, starting off with a double-digit loss in Charlotte to Appalachian State. At home, South Carolina’s SEC talent proves too much for the Pirates and they lose by double digits again, as well as at Marshall, starting off 0-3 for their worst start since 2017. After an ugly win over Charleston Southern, the Pirates get blown out by Tulane again before getting destroyed at UCF. Even after the bye week, the Pirates get blown out by Houston on the road and drop both home games they’re favored in against USF and Temple. After three more losses, including road losses at Memphis and Navy, as well as a senior night obliteration by Cincinnati, ECU shockingly goes 1-11 and the Pirates search for their third head coach in 7 seasons, ousting Mike Houston.
ESPN’s FPI has East Carolina’s win/loss percentage at 4.6-7.4. Too high or too low?
I feel it’s a hair low. I predict East Carolina contends for a bowl game and succeeds for the first time since 2014. I have the Pirates winning Charleston Southern, USF, Temple, and Navy, as well as winning 2 of Marshall, Tulane, and Appalachian State to go 6-6 to head into 2022 with positive momentum.