Click here for the #3-7 Preview and here for the #8-11 Preview.
So here are what I believe to be the Top 2 AAC Football Teams in the American Athletic Conference for 2021! These two teams are most likely to appear in the AAC Championship game on December 4th. Of course, any team from #3-7 is also capable of getting #2; however, I have no doubt who #1 is on paper.
So with that… here we go:
#2 UCF
Don’t let the winning record at 6-4 deceive you; 2020 was not very kind to UCF… but for different reasons than the other teams.
One positive was that there were no Covid breakouts in the program, which made UCF one of the few programs in 2020 to not have to cancel a game themselves due to Covid. Out-of-conference matchups with North Carolina and Florida A&M were cancelled prior to the season, while the FIU game was cancelled due to Covid issues with the Panthers. Otherwise, the Georgia Tech game and all conference games went as planned.
As for the season, UCF did start off well with impressive road victories over Georgia Tech and East Carolina, reaching as high as #11 in the polls… but then Tulsa happened. The Knights lost at home to the Golden Hurricane, breaking a full 3-season long winning streak in the Bounce House. Then, UCF blew a 35-14 lead at Memphis to fall 50-49, the first time losing back-t0-back games since 2016 and the first time losing to Memphis since 1990.
UCF got on the right track with a home win over Tulane, a road win at Houston, and a home win vs Temple before losing a competitive game at home to #7 Cincinnati, 36-33. Before the Houston game, however, UCF had to dismiss key starters in their defense which made their already thin depth shallower still towards the end of 2020.
This was seen when UCF managed to tie the War On I-4 series at Tampa, 6-6, albeit allowing a 1-win Bulls team to score 46 points (an obviously terrible defensive showing.) And then #16 BYU handed UCF their worst loss since the 2016 Cure Bowl, 49-23 (in a game that wasn’t even that close), in the 2020 Boca Raton Bowl. UCF finished 6-4 in a disappointing season for the Knights.
Then, 5-year Athletic Director Danny White left the school he deemed “National Champions, unbeaten” (after a 13-0 season, topped with a NY6 victory and a Colley Matrix Championship) for the Tennessee Volunteers, which left UCF with uncertainty for the first time since the 2015-2016 stretch. Unexpectedly, White ended up taking Heupel with him to Knoxville, and now UCF was searching for a new head coach too, the only AAC school to do so this offseason.
Back in mid-January, I would have ranked the Knights in the bottom portion of #3-7. Former head coach Josh Heupel did not leave a good atmosphere in Orlando… various player tweets after his firing expressed happiness and relief. His play-calling was questionable (though he was also really inexperienced as a head coach), and when it failed, the defense would take the brunt of it due to the fast offense.
Enter Gus Malzahn, former Head Coach of Auburn (2013-2021) – ironically the same coach UCF beat in 2017 for the Peach Bowl/Championship – hired by new Athletic Director Terry Mohajir to take over as head coach. Now, momentum seemed to shift to the Knights’ side once again.
One of the nation’s best QBs, Dillon Gabriel is entering his third year. Coming from the same high school in Hawaii as former UCF QB McKenzie Milton – one of the best athletes in school history – Dillon threw for 3,570 passing yards, 5th in the nation, as well as 32 TDs and only 4 interceptions. He is expected to have another major year this season, as he could have his eyes set on the 2022 NFL Draft.
The O-Line also returns its starters from last season, including RS-SR LG Cole Schneider and a rising young OC in RS-SO Matt Lee. In addition, the return of former Wisconsin Badger RS-SR Jake Hescock (53 yards, 3 TDs in 10 receptions) at TE should give the Knights a boost in that position.
This season the Knights do have to replace key pieces of their offense that have put the school on the map the last 4 years. The RB position, for example, loses Greg McCrae (758 yards and 10 TDs) and Otis Anderson Jr (687 yards and 4 TDs). Bentavious Thompson, one of Frost’s last recruits at UCF, also just left after rushing for 382 yards and 5 TDs in 2020. To help shore up depth at RB, Malzahn went to the transfer portal and added Isaiah Bowser from Northwestern (1,300 yards and seven touchdowns on 334 carries) as well as his former recruit from Auburn, Mark-Antony Richards. Plus, RJ Harvey (former UVA transfer who saw limited action) and a rising young player in Johnny Richardson (65 yards and 1 TD on 11 carries) return.
The WR position will also need some retooling after losing Marlon Williams (1,039 yds and 10 TDs in 71 receptions), Tre Nixon, and Jacob Harris (plus Otis Anderson.) Expected to have a big season are Jaylon Robinson, who caught 55 receptions for 979 yards and 6 TDs in 2020, as well as Ryan O’Keefe, who caught 20 receptions for 391 yards and 3 TDs. Malzahn also went to the transfer portal here to add former Auburn recruit Nate Craig-Myers, Tennessee transfer Brandon Johnson, and Notre Dame transfer Jordan Johnson. In addition, prized freshman 4-Star recruit from Hawaii Titus Mokiao-Atimalala could be part of the depth.
So, while the Knights lose a good deal of experience this season, they have the talent to retool. How quickly that chemistry will mesh will be one of the keys to how 2021 plays out… another factor is their defense, which was less than stellar in 2020 and contributed to many of UCF’s struggles.
It was a problem amplified by the dismissal of several defensive starters, but the defense was #123 in the league, worst in the AAC!
The good news for the front is that DT Kalia Davis (R-SR, 285 lbs, 6’2”), one of last season’s opt-outs, is returning in 2021 after a 2019 season where he contributed to 3 sacks. DE Tre’Mon Morris-Brash (JR, 235 lbs, 6’2”) is also returning after leading the team with 3.5 sacks in 2020, as well as rising young star Josh Celiscar (SO, 230 lbs, 6’4”) who had 16 tackles (8 solo), 2 sacks, 1 forced fumble/fumble recovery, and 1 INT in his freshman campaign. In addition, Big Kat Bryant (Grad Transfer, 250 lbs, 6’5”), another former Malzahn recruit from Auburn, and Ricky Barber from WKU (RS-FR, 6’1”, 220 lbs).
In the linebacker position, long-time veteran SR Eriq Gilyard is returning (33 tackles, 3 forced fumbles/2 recoveries, 1 INT) as is JR Tatum Bethune (2.5 sacks and 28 tackles), making this position the most experienced on this side of the ball. In the backfield, replacing 2nd-Round Pick Richie Grant (49 tackles, 2 fumbles, 3 INTs) will be a challenge. Cornerbacks SR Davonte Brown and SO Corey Thornton are returning, and SR Derek Gainous (33 tackles, 1 fumble, 1 INT) will return at safety. Former Nebraska transfer Jaiden Francois is the favorite at nickelback.
Pretty much any hope for the success UCF has been accustomed to in recent years will be decided by how much the defense improves from 2020. An unlikely benefit with all the depth used (due to opt-outs and the dismissals) meant young players received an unusual amount of experience last year.
Special teams also have some questions. The incumbent kicker is Daniel Obarski, but he went 12-for-17 on FGs – including a critical one at Memphis – and missed 3 extra points. He will need to greatly improve. Kick returners will have to be replaced as well with Otis Anderson and Marlon Williams gone – Ryan O’Keefe is a formidable option.
The good news for UCF this season is that they’re bringing in an experienced head coach in Gus Malzahn. It sounds like a Power 5 retread, however Malzahn managed to beat Nick Saban’s Alabama teams 3 times in 8 years – more than any other SEC coach. He has also posted consistent winning seasons in a difficult SEC West.
Here’s the schedule for the Knights:
| Thursday, September 2, 2021 | UCF vs Boise State | Bounce House, Orlando, FL |
| Saturday, September 11, 2021 | UCF vs Bethune-Cookman | Bounce House, Orlando, FL |
| Friday, September 17, 2021 | UCF at Louisville | Cardinal Stadium, Louisville, KY |
| Saturday, September 25, 2021 | BYE WEEK | N/a |
| Saturday, October 2, 2021 | UCF at Navy | Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium, Annapolis, MD |
| Saturday, October 9, 2021 | UCF vs East Carolina | Bounce House, Orlando, FL |
| Saturday, October 16, 2021 | UCF at Cincinnati | Nippert Stadium, Cincinnati, OH |
| Friday, October 22, 2021 | UCF vs Memphis | Bounce House, Orlando, FL |
| Saturday, October 30, 2021 | UCF at Temple | Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, PA |
| Saturday, November 6, 2021 | UCF vs Tulane | Bounce House, Orlando, FL |
| Saturday, November 13, 2021 | UCF at SMU | Gerald J Ford Stadium, Dallas, TX |
| Saturday, November 20, 2021 | UCF vs UConn | Bounce House, Orlando, FL |
| Friday, November 26, 2021 | UCF vs USF | Bounce House, Orlando, FL |
| Saturday, December 4, 2021 | AAC Championship (if eligible) | TBD |
Unlike the previous articles, for the top two team each game will be analyzed and given one of four types of win/loss predictions: Solid, Likely, Lean, or Tilt.
So, with that…
September 2, 2021 – Boise State
This will be the first meeting between the Knights and Broncos. Head-to-head, these two teams bring in excellent Junior QBs in Dillon Gabriel and Boise’s Hank Bachmeier (1,150 yards and 6 TDs in 2020, 1,879 yards and 9 TDs in 2019). In addition, both teams debut new head coaches with the Broncos hiring Andy Avalos to replace new Auburn HC Bryan Harsin.
| Best-Case: | Worst-Case: | Verdict: |
| The Bounce House is electric and that gives Dillon Gabriel and the Knights their mojo. The defense steps up big from 2020 and Bachmeier ends up struggling in the Florida heat/hostile atmosphere. This results in UCF not only beating Boise, but winning by double-digits to start their 2021 season on fire. | UCF’s defense is still a work in progress, and Bachmeier uses it to his advantage and puts up 40 points. In addition, the transition to Gus’s offense is more challenging than perceived, so Dillon struggles. The result is a home opener loss to the Broncos. | It will definitely be a nail biter, but UCF has some advantages. For one, coaching. I suspect Avalos will end up a great coach, but Gus Malzahn is simply more experienced while Avalos is a 1st-year head coach with room to grow. Another is the location; not only does Boise have to travel from the Rockies into Florida, but they also have to face the Knights in one of the most hostile atmospheres in college football. Before the Oct 3, 2020 loss to Tulsa, UCF had won 21 straight games in the Bounce House from 2017 to 2019. Add to that a chip on Dillon Gabriel’s shoulder, and I would bet a tilt in UCF’s favor. |
| Record: 1-0 (Win) | Record: 0-1 (Loss) | Tilt UCF Win (1-0) |
September 11, 2021 – Bethune-Cookman
This is the first meeting between the Knights and Wildcats since September 20, 2014 when UCF won 41-7 under George O’Leary. Needless to say, things have changed quite a bit since then with the Knights rising to national prominence. Series-wise, UCF has the edge at 11-5.
| Best-Case: | Worst-Case: | Verdict: |
| Dillon Gabriel has a record breaking game and UCF ends up reaching the 70-pt mark for the first time since Oct 28, 2017 vs Austin Peay. A merciless blowout. | UCF is looking ahead to Louisville and it results in a 31-7 type game. Either that or a hurricane hits Florida… | This will be more of a tune-up game to prepare for a road game at Louisville. The only thing that could stop UCF from getting a victory here is probably a hurricane cancelling the game altogether… |
| Record: 2-0 (Win) | Record: 1-1 (Win) | Solid UCF Win (2-0) |
September 17, 2021 – at Louisville
This is the first meeting between UCF and Louisville since their lone AAC conference matchup on Oct 18, 2013 – notably one of the most important victories in UCF history as the Knights knocked off the #8 Cardinals, 38-35, in a signature upset en-route to an AAC championship as well as a Fiesta Bowl victory vs Baylor. Since then, Louisville has moved on to the ACC, though hasn’t had a ranked season since 2016, and has had losing seasons in 2018 and 2020. Series-wise, it’s a tie at 1-1, with Louisville winning the other meeting in 1985.
| Best-Case: | Worst-Case: | Verdict: |
| The Knights make a big statement on the road, beating Louisville by double-digits, similar to Georgia Tech last year. Dillon Gabriel throws for 430 yards, breaking a new career record, while the defense shows up and gives Malik Cunningham nightmares. UCF earns an impressive double-digit road win. | The road P5 atmosphere takes a toll on the Knights. Louisville’s defense stops Dillon Gabriel while Malik Cunningham picks apart a defense that still needs improvement. The result is a double-digit loss to the Cardinals. | Both teams are in very different directions since the last meeting in 2013. UCF has become more nationally prominent while Louisville has yet to truly progress in the ACC and has lately struggled. The advantage for Louisville is that they’re at home. The advantage for UCF, however, is the constant chip on their shoulder, and that usually showed with P5 opponents like Stanford and Georgia Tech (worth noting that Louisville lost to the same Georgia Tech team UCF beat in 2020…). While this could be a loss, this just seems like one of those games where Dillon will want to put up fireworks. |
| Record: 3-0 (Win) | Record: 1-2 (Loss) | Tilt UCF Win (3-0) |
October 2, 2021 – at Navy
This is the third overall meeting between the Knights and Midshipmen, as well as the first since 2018. Series-wise, UCF holds on to a 2-0 record over Navy.
| Best-Case: | Worst-Case: | Verdict: |
| The Knights, fresh off a bye week, go up to Annapolis, while Dillon Gabriel continues his amazing campaign. UCF pulverizes the Midshipmen and win by blowout margins. | If Heupel were still here, this could definitely have been a loss at worst… While losing to the Mids is by no means impossible, it’s unlikely with the momentum on UCF’s side. Still, this could be a tricky game as the matchups between the two have been by 10 points and 14 points respectively. Navy’s triple-option can be annoying too. Here, Navy gives UCF a scare, but the Knights end up escaping Annapolis. | This is one of those matchups where I don’t know what to expect from the opponent. Yes, Navy was terrible in 2020, but I’ve seen the Mids rebound from a similarly bad 2018 to an excellent 2019 season. Still, I believe UCF has more than enough talent to win over this Navy team |
| Record: 4-0 (Win) | Record: 2-2 (Win) | Likely UCF Win (4-0) |
October 9, 2021 – East Carolina
It was not that long ago that these two teams were both competing for the conference championship. It happened when these two faced each other as CUSA opponents from 2005 to 2012. However, after 2014, the Knights and Pirates went in different directions. Other than the 0-12 season in 2015, UCF has appeared in the postseason, and has had three straight seasons ranked in the Top 25. Meanwhile, recent years haven’t been too kind to the Pirates; ECU has yet to make a bowl since 2014. The series lead still belongs to ECU, however now only 10-9 for the Pirates, with UCF winning the last 5 games as well as 8 of the last 10. If UCF wins this year, the series is tied.
| Best-Case: | Worst-Case: | Verdict: |
| Dillon Gabriel runs over the Pirates, and leads the Knights to 60 points vs ECU. The defense annihilates Holton Ahlers and this game looks like the 2017 matchup, which was 63-21. Essentially, this game is a tune-up for a big game next week. | The Pirates are improving and have given multiple teams scares recently under Mike Houston; last season they arguably should have won at Tulsa and did pull off a win over favored SMU at home. I don’t see UCF falling to the Pirates at home, however a scare like the ECU-Tulsa game is possible. There’s also the possibility that UCF looks ahead to next week. In this case, Holton Ahlers would put up big numbers, while UCF’s offense is limited; though the Knights score just enough to win a nail-biter. | While the Pirates under Mike Houston should take the next step and make a bowl for the first time since 2014, ECU simply doesn’t have the talent yet to win at Orlando. I don’t expect ECU to be as easily beaten as in recent years, however UCF should still be able to beat them by double-digits this year. |
| Record: 5-0 (Win) | Record: 3-2 (Win) | Solid UCF Win (5-0) |
October 16, 2021 – at Cincinnati
This is the big one. Arguably UCF’s biggest rival right now, Cincinnati has surged past the Knights in recent years. Interestingly, the two only began playing in 2015, skipping out 2013 and 2014. The series is currently tied at 3-3 with the Bearcats winning the last two matchups (albeit by 3 each).
| Best-Case: | Worst-Case: | Verdict: |
| Dillon Gabriel has a massive chip on his shoulder and he saves all his tricks for this game in Ohio. DG is on fire for this game and scores 5 TDs over a talented defense while the Knights defense takes advantage of an O-Line with two new starters and gives Desmond Ridder a nightmare. What happens here is that UCF pulls off their biggest road win since 2013 Louisville, topping a highly ranked Bearcats team in Nippert Stadium and avenging the last two years. | The offense is not prepared for the insane defense coached by mastermind Luke Fickell, and the Bearcats pulverize DG. Desmond Ridder also picks off the defense. What this results in is a double-digit loss to the defending champs. | Cincinnati returns more key players on their team than UCF does; Desmond Ridder, as well as a veteran defense led by Ahmad Gardner, Coby Bryant, and Myjai Sanders just to name a few. This Cincinnati team is really, really, REALLY good! In addition, the Bearcats will have home field advantage vs UCF. While I expect an insanely competitive game, I suspect this game will end up just like the last two years; UCF will be competitive, however will fall short again. There is a possibility, however, that this matchup could be played again December 4th as the AAC Championship… |
| Record: 6-0 (Win) | Record: 3-3 (Loss) | Lean UCF Loss (5-1) |
October 22, 2021 – Memphis
Last year was the first time since 1990 that UCF lost to Memphis. All 13 other matchups have been UCF victories giving the series 13-2 to the Knights; that includes 4 wins in 2 years (2017 and 2018) for the Knights, 3 of which have been in Orlando. This game will be the first time Memphis comes to the Bounce House since the 2018 AAC Championship when UCF won 56-41.
| Best-Case: | Worst-Case: | Verdict: |
| With last year’s disastrous loss in mind, the Knights go up by double-digits in halftime. This time, UCF makes sure to stay up by that much, as Dillon Gabriel puts up another record-breaking game and the defense pulverizes Memphis. | Last year’s loss still rings in the Knights’ minds and Dillon Gabriel isn’t focused this game. The defense fails to show up again as Memphis ends up winning with a last-second TD, just like 2020. | The loss to Memphis in 2020 should have never happened. Memphis should very much be given credit for their effort to win; however when your team is up 35-14 and adds two TDs to the score and STILL loses 50-49, there is no excuse. With the Tigers having to replace key pieces this offseason and the loss fresh in the minds of the players, this feels like a game where UCF is just waiting to exact vengeance and make a statement at home. |
| Record: 7-0 (Win) | Record: 3-4 (Loss) | Lean UCF Win (6-1) |
October 30, 2021 – at Temple
Temple is normally a competitive AAC team, though last season went pretty bad for the Owls with the team only winning 1 game all year. UCF leads the series 6-2 and has won the last 4 matchups, 3 of those being massive blowout margins (45-19 in 2017, 63-21 in 2019, and 38-13 in 2020).
| Best-Case: | Worst-Case: | Verdict: |
| Just like in recent years, UCF goes into Lincoln Financial Field and gives the Owls a dominating blowout. Dillon Gabriel runs circles around Temple’s rebuilding defense and UCF’s defense clobbers the Owls. | It’s not impossible for this game to get way too close for comfort considering this is a road trip to Philadelphia in late October – always a chance for it to get a little cold for UCF. Here, we see an ugly 20-10 game where the offense struggles to move due to cold conditions but the defense does *just* enough to deny Temple a surprising upset. | The only real thing that could lower UCF’s chances of winning by a large margin is weather. But even recently, UCF has played more comfortable in the cold than they did under O’Leary (for example, UConn in 2014). In short, UCF really should have no trouble winning this game against a rebuilding Temple team, who could slip further to the bottom of the AAC this year. |
| Record: 8-0 (Win) | Record: 4-4 (Win) | Likely UCF Win (7-1) |
November 6, 2021 – vs Tulane
UCF hosts Tulane for Homecoming for the second straight year. The Knights hold an 8-2 series lead over the Green Wave, with the only two losses coming in 2006 and 2015. Ever since that 2015 loss in the 0-12 season, UCF has won 3 straight against Tulane (2016, 2019, and 2020), and hold an undefeated record at home vs the Green Wave. Tulane is a team on the up-swing, so this could be a fun matchup in the Bounce House.
| Best-Case: | Worst-Case: | Verdict: |
| Dillon Gabriel improves his performance from last year’s Homecoming and completes 70-75% of his passes. The offense puts up numbers against the Green Wave similar to 2020 (possibly more), while the defense shuts down Michael Pratt and puts up a dominating clinic. The result is an impressive blowout victory over a good Tulane squad. | Tulane could definitely make things scary in Orlando. In this scenario, while UCF’s offense is good, they take a step down from that 2020 game. The defense fails to show up like last year, but DG does just enough to win a nail-biter at home. | Tulane is a team trying to climb the ranks of the AAC, no doubt. But it seems doubtful Tulane will reach the level to win against an improved UCF team; at least this year. |
| Record: 9-0 (Win) | Record: 5-4 (Win) | Likely UCF Win (8-1) |
November 13, 2021 – at SMU
UCF will travel to Dallas to play SMU. This will be the first time these two teams play since 2018 when UCF won 48-20 in Orlando. While UCF has an impressive 8-1 record over the Mustangs, trips to Dallas have been extremely close for UCF. In 2017, for example, UCF won 31-24 in a competitive matchup; in 2013, UCF won 17-13 in one of the coldest games in UCF history; and UCF’s only loss to SMU came in Dallas in 2011. In addition, SMU has made some impressive strides since these two teams last met, having made appearances in the Top 25 the last two years and having recruited great talent.
| Best-Case: | Worst-Case: | Verdict: |
| Dillon Gabriel shows up and puts up a clinic over the Mustangs defense. In addition, the defense gives Tanner Mordecai some problems. UCF ends up winning by double-digits. | The SMU defense steps up and Dillon Gabriel struggles throughout the game, and the Knights defense has trouble containing Tanner Mordecai. Mordecai comes in clutch, and SMU beats UCF for the first time since 2011. | The general consensus is that the UCF at Cincinnati trip is the toughest game in the schedule for the Knights. However, what is the second toughest? To me, it’s this game. SMU does lose their QB in Shane Buechele, but returns pretty much the rest of their core and has brought in Tanner Mordecai as a solid talent to replace Buechele. This is really a game that could go either way… but I’ll go with Dillon Gabriel’s experience to make the difference as well as Gus Malzahn’s coaching. |
| Record: 10-0 (Win) | Worst-Case: 5-5 (L0ss) | Tilt UCF Win (9-1) |
November 20, 2021 – vs UConn
Yes, I am trying to comprehend how on earth UConn is back on the schedule for UCF. Regardless, this is the first non-conference matchup between the Knights and Huskies, as all other matchups have been AAC games. UCF has a 5-2 lead over the former “Civil Conflict” rival; UConn’s only two wins were in 2014 and 2015 when O’Leary was on the down-swing at UCF.
| Best-Case: | Worst-Case: | Verdict: |
| Like Bethune-Cookman’s case, Dillon Gabriel puts up record-breaking numbers and the offense gets 70 points (probably some playing time for Mikey Keene). Needless to say, a super-blowout victory. | …The game gets cancelled due to a Covid breakout from either program? Okay, when it comes to the game maybe UCF plays only vanilla and wins by 30 instead of 50-60. It would take playing the bottom of the depth chart or a complete disaster to make this game competitive for UCF. | Prior to their departure from the AAC, UConn lost 19 straight conference games dating back to 2017. You could make the argument that the Huskies may be in even worse shape in 2021. UConn cancelled their 2020 season, so they enter 2021 having not played since 2019 when they went 2-10. |
| Record: 11-0 (Win) | Worst-Case: 6-5 (Win) | Solid UCF Win (10-1) |
November 26, 2021 – vs USF
So, here we have the War On I-4. While the series is tied 6-6, UCF has won 6 of the last 8 matchups over the Bulls since 2013, and has won 4 in a row dating back to 2017. With the tying of the series last season, UCF has a chance to take the lead in the series in 2021. USF, on the other hand, have fallen on hard times since 2017.
| Best-Case: | Worst-Case: | Verdict: |
| Utter domination. UCF takes the series lead over the Bulls with a statement to their rivals, putting up 60 points and holding USF to 10-14 points – similar to USF’s 64-12 victory in 2007, but this time in UCF’s favor. | Never underestimate a rivalry. USF won’t want UCF to take the series lead without a fight, no matter how bad they are. There’s also the possibility UCF looks slightly ahead to next week with a potential AAC Championship matchup (if this game happens separately from the other worst cases). In this scenario, UCF wins a 50-40 shootout, similar to 2020, but the Bulls give the crowds in Orlando a scare. The Bulls also try to start fights against UCF to frustrate the opponent. | It’s impressive seeing how far the War On I-4 has shifted in UCF’s favor. USF won the first four games – all non-conference – from 2005 to 2008. Back then, UCF was in Conference USA while USF was in the old Big East. Ever since UCF was added to the Big East – rebranded as the American Athletic Conference – the Knights have surged in the series, only losing 2015 and 2016 (when USF was on the up-swing while UCF sunk for a bit with the 0-12 implosion). The fact that this is a rivalry is the only reason this isn’t “Solid;” but, I believe the Knights will take the series lead for the first time in school history. It will be a game where the Bulls show some fight, but UCF surges in the second half to a dominant victory. |
| Record: 12-0 (Win) | Record: 7-5 (Win) | Likely UCF Win (11-1) |
Postseason
If UCF goes 11-1, there is a good chance they’ll be in the AAC Championship, most likely against Cincinnati. From here, the bowl game depends on how UCF shows up. A victory on December 4th will likely send the Knights to a NY6 Bowl (either the Peach or Fiesta Bowl). A loss could grant the Knights a Gasparilla or Military Bowl-type appearance; though if UCF goes 11-1, the AAC will likely try to get a mid-P5 opponent. Another likely possibility is the Liberty Bowl. If the SEC doesn’t have enough teams to fill all their bowl slots, the Liberty Bowl could add UCF against a Big 12 opponent like they did with Memphis and Navy (2017 and 2019 respectively).
If UCF finishes with 8 to 10 wins, on the other hand, they should garner an invitation to the Gasparilla Bowl to face a standard CUSA opponent. Anything less would presumably lead to a berth in the Cure Bowl, a disappointing but unlikely result.
Having said that, I boldly predict UCF going 11-1 and falling short in the AAC Championship, making the Liberty Bowl to play a team like TCU (which may or may not be a preview of a future Big-12 conference game, depending on how realignment turns out). Such a season may set the stage for a championship year in 2022 though.
#1 Cincinnati
The defending champions of the AAC had an impressive season in 2020. The Bearcats did cancel non-conference tilts with Western Michigan, Miami OH, and Nebraska (due to the MAC/Big Ten initially cancelling their seasons due to Covid), but they replaced one with a game vs Army. Inside the conference, Cincinnati canceled matchups at Tulsa (twice) and Temple because of Covid outbreaks, but the Bearcats ended up playing Tulsa anyhow in a conference final at home to win the AAC.
In the regular season, the Bearcats were on fire, going 9-1 and finishing #8 in the AP/Coaches Polls, and there was even some College Football Playoff speculation. Their only loss was to Georgia in the Peach Bowl. Some of Cincy’s victories include 24-10 over #22 Army, 42-13 at #16 SMU, 36-33 at UCF, and 27-24 over #23 Tulsa.
What’s either most satisfying or scary—depending on whether you or fan or foe—is that the Bearcats’ core is returning, so they have the ability to do it all again this season. They also kept star HC Luke Fickell from being poached to a P5 program. Fickell rebuilt Cincinnati from the Tuberville years; other than a 4-8 “Year 0” season in 2017, the Bearcats have gone 11-2, 11-3, and 9-1 from 2018 to 2020 under the former Ohio State assistant.
On offense, SR Desmond Ridder is back for his last season, after passing for 2,445 yards and running for 12 touchdowns. Ridder is expected to put up even better numbers in 2021, as he prepares to make his mark in the 2022 NFL Draft. The RB corps did lose Gerrid Doaks (673 yards and 7 TDs), but they bring back RS-SO Jerome Ford, a transfer from Alabama who ran 483 yards and 8 TDs. In addition, Desmond Ridder also rushes well, going for 592 yards in 2020.
The WR position is loaded with veterans. SR Alec Pierce (315 yards in 17 recs/3 TDs) and Notre Dame Transfer GR Michael Young (332 yards in 29 recs/3 TDs) are back, as well as JR Tre Tucker (236 yards in 18 recs/3 TDs). The TE position also brings back RS-JR Josh Whyle (353 yards in 28 recs/6 TDs). So, Ridder certainly has plenty of receiver options down the field.
One vulnerable point of this offense could be replacing two tackles, James Hudson and Darius Harper, on the line. The guards/center looks fine however, with RS SR Vincent McConnell (RG) coming back as well as SO Jake Renfro (OC) and RS JR Jeremy Cooper (LG). One player to be on the lookout for on either tackle position is RS-JR Lorenz Metz. Still, finding that right offensive line combo is a necessity in order to prepare for a potential CFP appearance.
The Bearcat defense has been a signature factor in their success, especially the last couple years. In 2020, this unit was ranked #1 in the AAC and #13 in the FBS, allowing only 325 yards and 17 points per game. There was a stretch where the Bearcats allowed their adversaries only paltry scores: 10, 7, 13, 10, 10, and 17 points. The only game where Cincinnati allowed over 30 points was still a win (36-33 over UCF). Certainly, losing DC Marcus Freeman to Notre Dame stings a bit; but if former Michigan State assistant Mike Tressel can replicate Freeman’s success, the defense should not miss a beat. In addition, HC Luke Fickell is also a defensive mastermind.
The defensive line returns SR Myjai Sanders, who led the team with 7 sacks and 10.5 tackles per loss in 2020. Expect this 6’5″ 258 lb DE to wreak havoc again in 2021 as one of college football’s best defenders.
At the other DE position, Elijah Ponder will need to be replaced, and SR Malik Vann looks to be the favorite candidate. The DT rotation is filled with veterans, including GR Marcus Brown and UVA transfer Jowon Briggs. As for the linebacker position, Jarrell White will have to be replaced; the good news is that the Bearcats have more than enough depth, including GR Darrian Beavers who had 58 tackles and 7.5 tackles for loss as well as GR Joel Dublanko who had 32 tackles, 1 sack, and 1 forced fumble recovery.
Then there is the secondary. The CB position has two solid players in GR Coby Bryant (who led the team with interceptions) and JR Ahmad Gardner. Combined, these two had 7 interceptions as well as 13 passes broken up. The NB position has a solid defender in RS JR Arquon Bush. The safety position must replace James Wiggins and Darrick Forest, but the Bearcats have depth there too with SR Ja’Von Hicks and RS SR Bryan Cook. Hicks had limited time in 2020, but had 5 interceptions in 2019.
For special teams, FR Mason Fletcher must replace James Smith as Punter, but the rest of the team is back with JR Ryan Montgomery as Punt Returner, SR Cole Smith as Kicker, and JR Tre Tucker as Kickoff Returner.
Their previous season performance, the brilliant coaching staff, and the number of excellent experienced players returning makes Cincinnati the favorite to win the AAC and make, at least, a NY6 Bowl. There is, of course, also always the possibility of a playoff appearance, but the Bearcats face a steep climb. In order to be the first G5 Playoff team, Cincinnati must win all their games and the championship game and consistently dominate their opponents. Here is their schedule:
| Saturday, September 4, 2021 | Cincinnati vs Miami OH | Nippert Stadium, Cincinnati, OH |
| Saturday, September 11, 2021 | Cincinnati vs Murray State | Nippert Stadium, Cincinnati, OH |
| Saturday, September 18, 2021 | Cincinnati at Indiana | Memorial Stadium, Bloomington, IN |
| Saturday, September 25, 2021 | BYE WEEK | N/a |
| Saturday, October 2, 2021 | Cincinnati at Notre Dame | Notre Dame Stadium, South Bend, IN |
| Friday, October 8, 2021 | Cincinnati vs Temple | Nippert Stadium, Cincinnati, OH |
| Saturday, October 16, 2021 | Cincinnati vs UCF | Nippert Stadium, Cincinnati, OH |
| Saturday, October 23, 2021 | Cincinnati at Navy | Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium, Annapolis, MD |
| Saturday, October 30, 2021 | Cincinnati at Tulane | Yulman Stadium, New Orleans, LA |
| Saturday, November 6, 2021 | Cincinnati vs Tulsa | Nippert Stadium, Cincinnati, OH |
| Friday, November 12, 2021 | Cincinnati at USF | Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL |
| Saturday, November 20, 2021 | Cincinnati vs SMU | Nippert Stadium, Cincinnati, OH |
| Saturday, November 27, 2021 | Cincinnati at East Carolina | Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium, Greenville, NC |
| Saturday, December 4, 2021 | AAC Championship (if eligible) | TBD |
Same as before, each game will be listed one-by-one with a win/loss prediction of either: Solid, Likely, Lean, or Tilt.
September 4, 2021 – Cincinnati vs Miami OH
The Victory Bell rivalry between the Bearcats and the RedHawks is back after a year hiatus (due to Covid cancelling the 2020 game). Miami OH still leads the series 59-58-7, though Cincinnati has won the last 14 games dating back to 2006. The RedHawks had some close games in the Tuberville years as well as Fickell’s first (2013-2017), but the Bearcats have dominated them again in recent meetings, and this season they can tie their series.
| Best-Case: | Worst-Case: | Verdict: |
| Desmond Ridder puts up big numbers in the 40-50 range while the defense shuts out Miami. Needless to say, the Bearcats begin their season with a blowout victory. | Never underestimate a rivalry! The RedHawks aren’t exactly pushovers like they were in the early 2010s. That being said, this Cincinnati squad has way too much talent for this game to be anywhere close to that. I’d guess in this scenario, Ridder looks a little lackluster, putting up 30 points, while the defense allows the RedHawks to score more points than they should. Think a 38-17 type game; more of a first game jitters situation. | Look for this game to be a tune-up match to get the Bearcats into shape for the season. Cincinnati hasn’t lost a matchup to Miami OH since 2005, and this is certainly not the year that changes the status quo. |
| Record: 1-0 (Win) | Record: 1-0 (Win) | Solid Cincinnati Win (1-0) |
September 11, 2021 – Cincinnati vs Murray State
This is the first meeting between Cincinnati and Murray State. The Racers actually played football in the spring to substitute their fall season.
| Best-Case: | Worst-Case: | Verdict: |
| Similar to Miami OH, Desmond Ridder puts up large numbers, this time in the 60-pt range. The defense shuts out Murray State, and the Bearcats get another lopsided victory. | This game gets cancelled due to a Covid outbreak with either program… In all seriousness, in this scenario, Desmond Ridder still looks slow and puts up only 30 points in a 31-0 type win. | This is another tune-up game to get Cincinnati ready for their next 2 matches (which could make or break Cincy’s playoff hopes). Expect the team’s depth to be fully exploited in this match. |
| Record: 2-0 (Win) | Record: 2-0 (Win) | Solid Cincinnati Win (2-0) |
September 18, 2021 – Cincinnati at Indiana
Indiana should be Cincinnati’s first real test of the season. The Hoosiers had an impressive Big Ten season last year, and they figure to be competitive again with their returning roster. Indiana holds a 9-3-2 lead historically over the Bearcats, with their last meeting being in 2000.
| Best-Case: | Worst-Case: | Verdict: |
| Cincinnati goes into Bloomington, looking to make a statement that they’re ready for the CFP Playoffs. Desmond Ridder scores all over the Hoosier defense while Myjai Sanders sacks Michael Penix Jr 2 times and leads the defense to an elite effort. As a result, Cincinnati wins and rises up the rankings to #8. | This is the most challenging road atmosphere Ridder has faced since Memphis. As a result, Ridder struggles to move the ball and Michael Penix Jr has a field day. Marcus Freeman looks like a massive loss for the defense, and Indiana wins by double-digits. Cincinnati falls to the 20s in the rankings. | The Bearcats must win in order to have any consideration for the CFP. I do not see Cincinnati undefeated all the way, and I feel Indiana is looking for respect themselves, competing in the Big Ten East (home of Ohio State, Penn State, and Michigan). While Cincinnati could definitely win this, I have this as a loss to Indiana as the Hoosiers kick a last-second field goal. It almost looks like the loss to UGA in the Peach Bowl. |
| Record: 3-0 (Win) | Record: 2-1 (Loss) | Tilt Cincinnati Loss (2-1) |
October 2, 2021 – Cincinnati at Notre Dame
Here is another major test for the Bearcats, as Notre Dame made the playoffs in 2 of the last 3 seasons, including 2020. Cincinnati will have to travel to one of the most hostile road atmospheres in college football in South Bend, where Notre Dame has won 24 straight home games dating back to September 30, 2017, including one over fellow CFP participant Clemson in 2020.
The Bearcats’ only meeting with the Fighting Irish dates back to 1900, where Notre Dame won 58-0. This is also the first time Luke Fickell has to face former DC Marcus Freeman, now coaching Notre Dame’s defense, so there is even some added incentive.
| Best-Case: | Worst-Case: | Verdict: |
| Similar to Indiana, Cincinnati is looking to make a statement. This time, the Bearcats take advantage of a retooling ND team, as Cincy goes into South Bend and comes out with an impressive 10-pt victory. Cincinnati nearly makes the Top 5. | Desmond Ridder struggles to move the ball as Marcus Freeman is familiar with the Bearcats offense and uses it to his advantage. In addition, Freeman is able to figure out his former defense good enough for Cincy to suffer a double-digit loss to Notre Dame. Cincinnati drops out of the rankings for the first time since October 6, 2019. | Notre Dame DC Marcus Freeman is the X-Factor for this game, as he has coached under Luke Fickell the last 4 years in Cincinnati. This could give the Fighting Irish a favorable advantage… but it could also work well for Fickell and the Bearcats, who are looking to make a big statement for the Playoff Committee. The players would also love to prove themselves against their former Defensive Coordinator. There’s a good chance Notre Dame is riding a 26-game home winning streak, and with Notre Dame retooling, this looks like a good opportunity for Cincinnati to snap ND’s home streak with a Bearcats victory. This will be a tough matchup, like Indiana, but Cincinnati is on a mission! |
| Record: 4-0 (Win) | Record: 2-2 (Loss) | Tilt Cincinnati Win (3-1) |
October 8, 2021 – Cincinnati vs Temple
After two tough road trips, the Bearcats return home to face a rebuilding Temple team on Friday night. Temple leads the series 13-8-1, though Cincinnati has won the last meeting in 2019, snapping a previous 4-game losing streak to the Owls. Cincinnati was originally supposed to face Temple in Philadelphia last year, but a Covid outbreak cancelled the game.
| Best-Case: | Worst-Case: | Verdict: |
| Desmond Ridder runs all over Temple scoring 50 while the Bearcats defense holds the Owls to single-digits. Another massive blowout victory for Cincinnati, as they win their second straight over Temple. | Cincinnati is caught looking ahead to next week and this ends up being a trap game, especially with the short-week. Fortunately, the Bearcats are talented enough to still win by double-digits at home, but a not-so-impressive 28-10 victory is the result. | It wasn’t that long ago that Temple was one of the contenders of the conference. Last season, however, Temple tumbled to the bottom of the league. Just like Murray State, this should be another tune-up home game as Cincinnati gets ready for another important game next week. |
| Record: 5-0 (Win) | Record: 3-2 (Win) | Solid Cincinnati Win (4-1) |
October 16, 2021 – Cincinnati vs UCF
Now, the Bearcats must face off against their biggest obstacle in-conference: UCF, with a new HC Gus Malzahn. The series is split 3-3, with Cincinnati winning the last two meetings, each by three (including their only win in Orlando).
| Best-Case: | Worst-Case: | Verdict: |
| Cincinnati continues their CFP statement tour, and actually improves their margin-of-victory over UCF. This time, the Bearcats win a 38-24 type game, as the defense impressively shuts down Dillon Gabriel and takes advantage of a new WR core. Ridder ends up running circles around the Knights defense, while Myjai Sanders, Ahmad Gardner, etc give Dillon Gabriel a rough night. This victory vaults Cincinnati into the #5 spot, their highest ranking since the 2009 season. | This is a game where Cincinnati cannot get too comfortable just because they’re at home. The last 2 wins for Luke Fickell over the Knights have each been by only 3 (27-24 in 2019 and 36-33 in 2020), and UCF arguably had an inferior coach in Josh Heupel vs Gus Malzahn (who took down Saban’s Alabama squads 3 times in 7 years). In this scenario, with the Knights upgrading their coaching staff and Dillon Gabriel looking to make his own statement, UCF avenges their last two losses and stuns Cincinnati in Nippert Stadium; the Bearcats’ first home loss since November 10, 2017. The season is ruined for Desmond Ridder and the Bearcats. Ranking-wise, the Bearcats receive no votes for the first time since September 23, 2018. | Gus Malzahn definitely has the Knights on the right track, but until proven otherwise, Cincinnati is still the top dog (or Cat… derp) of the AAC. Still, the Bearcats are fortunate that this game is in Cincinnati, and there may be the added incentive of national focus if this is a College GameDay site. Indeed, the AAC did Cincinnati good favors by scheduling their toughest conference matchups (UCF, SMU, & Tulsa) at Nippert Stadium, where the Bearcats haven’t lost since Fickell’s first season. Ultimately, the Bearcats’ experience as well as their home atmosphere will make the difference in this game in another 3-pt victory. This is probably Cincinnati’s toughest conference game, however, and this could very much be replayed again December 4th. The winner of this game will decide where. |
| Record: 6-0 (Win) | Record: 3-3 (Loss) | Lean Cincinnati Win (5-1) |
October 23, 2021 – Cincinnati at Navy
This is the first matchup between the Bearcats and Midshipmen since 2018. Navy holds the series lead 3-1, with Cincinnati’s only win coming in 2018.
| Best-Case: | Worst-Case: | Verdict: |
| This is another game where Ridder puts up numbers to improve his draft stock while Myjai Sanders leads the defense to a dominating day over the Midshipmen. Bearcats continue their march for a CFP spot with a blowout road victory. | Cincinnati has had some bizarre recent history with road conference games. 2020 had an outlier easy win at SMU, but the Bearcats did struggle at UCF. In 2019, the Bearcats had some nail-biters at USF and ECU and lost to Memphis. In 2018, Cincinnati slipped up at Temple, got dominated by UCF, and barely beat SMU. Thus, it’s not out of the question for another close conference road game in Annapolis, but the Bearcats should still eek out a victory. This could especially happen if Cincinnati lost to UCF the previous week and has a downer game here. | The last time these two teams played in Annapolis in 2017, they were both in different positions. Luke Fickell was in Year 0 with the Bearcats cleaning up the fallout from the Tuberville years, while Navy was still a difficult opponent to play against. Here, Navy is on the downswing while Cincinnati is competing for not just an NY6 but even a playoff spot. |
| Record: 7-0 (Win) | Record: 4-3 (Win) | Solid Cincinnati Win (6-1) |
October 30, 2021 – Cincinnati at Tulane
This is the first matchup between the Bearcats and Green Wave since 2018. Tulane leads the series 11-6, though Cincinnati has won the last 3 meetings (2014, 2017, and 2018).
| Best-Case: | Worst-Case: | Verdict: |
| Cincinnati intends to make a statement to the CFP committee, and they do that through domination. Ridder is on fire once again, and the defense shuts down Michael Pratt. Cincinnati wins by double-digits. | The Bearcats have to be careful here, as Tulane is a team that’s on the upswing, looking to take the next step under Willie Fritz. Add to that this being a road game, and Cincinnati might have more trouble winning this game than people think. Still, the Bearcats should squeak out an overtime win to deny the Green Wave an upset. | This game does have potential to be an “upset watch” type matchup. I’m pretty high on Tulane this year, and I can definitely see the Green Wave putting up big fights with the top AAC teams. Having said that, Tulane just isn’t at the level of Cincinnati. While this is probably a trap game for the Bearcats, Cincinnati should be able to win. Still, this is probably the most dangerous out of the AAC conference road games. |
| Record: 8-0 (Win) | Record: 5-3 (Win) | Likely Cincinnati Win (7-1) |
November 6, 2021 – Cincinnati vs Tulsa
This is the 3rd straight year that the Bearcats host the Tulsa Golden Hurricane. In addition to the 2019 matchup, the 2020 game was originally supposed to be at Tulsa, but due to Covid, the game was eventually moved to Cincinnati as the AAC Championship. Tulsa leads the series 17-16-2 with Cincinnati winning 7 of the last 8 dating back to 1993; their only loss in that stretch was in 2016.
| Best-Case: | Worst-Case: | Verdict: |
| This will be a tough home game, but if the defense can slow down this less experienced Tulsa offense, Cincinnati should win convincingly. In this case, the Bearcats roll by double-digits, looking more like the 2019 game (24-13) than the 2020 Championship (27-24). | Tulsa certainly won’t want to lose at Cincy 3 years in a row. Add to that motivation from losing their home game due to Covid (having to play at Cincinnati instead), and Tulsa could be fired up with revenge in mind. In this scenario, we have an overtime matchup at home. Cincinnati is talented enough to beat Tulsa, but barely wins an unimpressive effort, 24-17. | Tulsa has their own pieces to replace in Zaven Collins and Zach Smith. While they should still be a competitive opponent, Cincinnati should be able to win this one at home. In addition, this is Homecoming and Cincinnati will definitely not want to lose a Homecoming game. |
| Record: 9-0 (Win) | Record: 6-3 (Win) | Likely Cincinnati Win (8-1) |
November 12, 2021 – Cincinnati at USF
Cincinnati then travels to Tampa to play a rebuilding USF team on Friday night, looking to extend their winning streak over the Bulls to 4 which would match their longest from 2006 to 2009. Cincinnati has an 11-7 lead over USF, though they are only 4-5 in Tampa and struggle to win handily there.
| Best-Case: | Worst-Case: | Verdict: |
| Desmond Ridder has a record-breaking performance over the rebuilding Bulls. Cincinnati puts up 40-50 points and Myjai Sanders has a field day, along with Gardner and Bryant. This, of course, means another blowout victory for Luke Fickell and the Bearcats. | As mentioned above, Raymond James Stadium hasn’t exactly been friendly to Cincinnati historically. A 2013-type upset is improbable, but something like the 2019 game is certainly possible. Here, Jeff Scott coaches the Bulls well and is able put up a fight. What happens is a repeat of 2019 as Cincinnati scores a game winner and escapes a shocking upset in Tampa. | USF is expected to be one of the bottom teams in the AAC this year, and Cincinnati should beat this team by a wide margin. It’s too early to say whether Jeff Scott has the Bulls on the right track (though their recruitment has improved), but even if so, USF is still a couple years away from being a threat. That said, the only thing that could prevent this from being “Solid” is Cincinnati’s historical struggles in Tampa. The Bearcats had a better team in 2013 (9-4) and still lost to a 2-10 USF team under Willie Taggart’s first year (which this USF team is expected to be compared to). They also lost in 2015 and 2017, while barely escaping in 2019. This season Fickell will not let them repeat these poor showings. |
| Record: 10-0 (Win) | Record: 7-3 (Win) | Solid Cincinnati Win (9-1) |
November 20, 2021 – Cincinnati vs SMU
The Bearcats’ last home game of the regular season is against SMU. Cincinnati has a 4-1 lead over the Mustangs, their lone loss being the last time Cincinnati hosted SMU, in 2017. Last year’s game was one of Cincinnati’s most impressive efforts, going into Dallas and winning 42-13 over then-#16 SMU.
| Best-Case: | Worst-Case: | Verdict: |
| An effort similar to last year. Desmond Ridder runs all over SMU while Myjai Sanders and Ahmad Gardner give Tanner Mordecai a bad night. The score looks like a 40-20 type victory for Cincinnati. | This is a scary matchup. Fortunately, the Bearcats are at home and with a loss to UCF already in these scenarios, Cincinnati will likely do enough to win this game. What happens, however, is an overtime matchup like 2017 and 2018, where Ahmad Gardner comes up with a pick to end the game. | SMU does return a lot from their squad the last two seasons; however, Cincinnati is simply more experienced then SMU. In addition, this potentially record-breaking Bearcat squad will not want to lose on Senior Night to SMU. Also, as with UCF, this game may be replayed again December 4th with a trophy at stake. |
| Record: 11-0 (Win) | Record: 8-3 (Win) | Likely Cincinnati Win (10-1) |
November 27, 2021 – Cincinnati at East Carolina
Cincinnati will wrap up their regular season at East Carolina. The Pirates hold the lead in the series 13-11 over the Bearcats, though Cincinnati has won 6 of the last 7 games dating back to 2014. Their only loss was in 2017, while rebuilding under Luke Fickell.
| Best-Case: | Worst-Case: | Verdict: |
| A similar game to any of the above opponents. Desmond Ridder looks to catapult Cincinnati up the playoff standings, and Fickell decides to run the score up like in 2020. Myjai Sanders gives Holton Ahlers a bad night as well. Cincinnati celebrates their second straight undefeated regular season with a double-digit victory in Greenville. | Cincinnati traveling to ECU feels similar to the USF trips; the Bearcats go into Greenville, nearly get upset, but just come up with the victory. It happened in 2015 as well as 2019, and the Bearcats actually lost in 2017. In addition to that, the Pirates look to be on the upswing with HC Mike Houston, and Cincinnati could be looking ahead to an AAC Championship (if clinched). This makes this particular matchup a trap game for the Bearcats. What happens here is a game like 2019, where Cincinnati comes back and wins with a game-winning play, escaping Greenville. | ECU is improving from what they were in the Coach Mo years, but it will take them years to catch up to Cincinnati. Right now, ECU is just trying to make a bowl game for the first time since 2014. Still, this could be a closer game than people think, especially if HC Houston wants to make a statement. The Bearcats will still have that chip on their shoulder for a CFP appearance though. |
| Record: 12-0 (Win) | Record: 9-3 (Win) | Likely Cincinnati Win (11-1) |
Postseason
Cincinnati will likely go 8-0 in conference and, with that, host the AAC Championship for the second straight season. Any threat of losing home field advantage could come if Cincinnati is upset by UCF, SMU, or another surprise team. A victory on December 4th will likely send the Bearcats to another NY6 Bowl, most likely the Fiesta Bowl, with the Bearcats already having gone to the Peach Bowl last season. If the Bearcats are undefeated, I unfortunately don’t see the CFP adding them, as there could be other undefeated squads that get more respect from the Committee like Ohio State, Alabama, Clemson, etc.
A loss in the AAC Championship, on the other hand, would depend on how Cincinnati finishes to begin with. If the Bearcats are undefeated or have only 1 loss before losing, for example, the Liberty Bowl could swoop in and invite the 12-1 or 11-2 Bearcats to play in Memphis. Anything less (10-3 or 9-4) would likely place Cincinnati in a bowl game like the Military Bowl, which would be a disappointment considering the team’s expectations and the hype they are getting.
The most likely scenario is that the Bearcats win the AAC Championship over UCF and play in the Fiesta Bowl against Wisconsin or Texas A&M. This does set up an offseason of questions with a great deal of the talent leaving, as well as the possibility of Luke Fickell being poached a P5 team (like USC, for example), but a win in the Fiesta Bowl will nicely compensate for such losses that are the outcome of sweet success.
